I need to clarify something about this article immediately. This is not me endorsing particular players to hit a home run on Friday night — that’s this article. Instead, I’ll be taking a look at the home run prop bets that are currently the most popular on DraftKings Sportsbook and assessing whether or not the public is correct with the players they’re chasing.
Make sense? Amazing. Let’s dive into this evening’s packed 15-game slate.
Most-Bet Home Run Props on 6/27/25
Aaron Judge 1 + Home Run (+175)
Judge and the Yankees are coming home after their quick trip to Cincinnati and Judge will look to square up Mitch Spence for his 29th homer of the year. Judge has hit 13 of his 28 homers at Yankee Stadium and 18 of them against righties. He actually has better per-at-bat homer production against lefties and on the road, but it’s still easy to like the pick since he has been so productive. I highlighted the Yankees as one of my top DFS stacks against Spence and the shaky Athletics bullpen. Spence has been decent but not dominant and feels a little homer-prone, with six allowed in 58 2/3 innings as a starter and out of the bullpen.
Judge has two homers in his last six games and continues to lead the league in barrels per plate appearance. He ranks third in average exit velocity and 12th in hard-hit rate, so there’s plenty to like about backing Judge for an “all rise” moment on Friday night.
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+240)
Raleigh passed Judge for the MLB lead in home runs over the past few weeks and “Big Dumper” is already up to 32 homers in just 79 games this season. He hasn’t homered in three straight games, which feels like an extended drought for him this season. He has nine homers in his last 19 games, though, and 15 in his last 27. He has a 52.5% hard-hit rate in those last 19 games with a 10.2% barrel rate.
The switch-hitting catcher will be on the road against the Rangers on Friday, taking on Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi is just coming off the injured list after missing almost a month with right triceps fatigue. Eovaldi is a wild card since he was very sharp before the injury with a 1.56 ERA and just four home runs allowed in 12 starts. Raleigh is 4-for-14 against him in their past meetings with a home run. Most of Raleigh’s homers this year have come against righties like Eovaldi, plus most have also come on the road. I don’t love the pick because of the matchup, but the Rangers’ bullpen and Eovaldi’s uncertain form are enough that this could end up being a value play that pays off.
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+220)
Ohtani is also on the road this Friday night and he’s also in a matchup that doesn’t necessarily put him in the best spot. Obviously, he’s a generational slugger and can overcome the matchup, but it isn’t one of the best setups for him. Ohtani has three homers in his last four games, taking him to 28 dingers on the season. Two of those homers came at Coors Field, where he predictably feasted on the Rockies at altitude.
Ohtani is in Kansas City for this game, though, and will face Royals lefty Noah Cameron. Only five of his 28 homers have come off southpaws, against whom he is hitting .312 but with “only” a .391 wOBA (compared to a .442 wOBA against righties). Cameron has only given up four homers in his eight starts this year and only one of those was hit by a lefty. He has held left-handed hitters to a .154 batting average and .200 wOBA. Ohtani isn’t most left-handed hitters and should get some at-bats against the Royals bullpen, but he’s not one of my top plays of the day, even though he does always bring potential.
