All 30 teams are in action under the lights this Friday night, and it’s a wide-open playing field for anyone in search of some great home run props. The most homer-friendly parks don’t really appear on the board this weekend, but some great matchups await players in good form. The weather looks spotty in a few places in the Midwest, but there are still plenty of good spots to target for home run props. Based on matchup, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Friday night are Heliot Ramos, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Brandon Lowe.
Just a quick reminder before we step up to the plate and swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard–get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be exclusively counted on. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGPs or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Heliot Ramos to record 1+ home runs (+260)
Let’s start in Chicago, where the wind in the Windy City is forecasted to be brisk and blowing out to left field along with warm game-time temperatures. Ramos is one of the best Giants’ options to target as he takes on righty Aaron Civale.
Ramos is up to 13 homers on the season, with two in his last eight games. He has a .359 wOBA with a .184 ISO and 43.4% hard-hit rate.
He’ll be in a good spot against Civale, who has the second-highest HR/9 of the starting pitchers in play on Friday night. He has given up seven homers in seven starts across 34 innings. Right-handed hitters have most of those homers against Civale and a .376 wOBA.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+230)
Acuna has been incredible after missing almost a full-year with his ACL injury. He already has nine homers in just 31 games since returning. He has six homers in his 15 home games and gets especially fired up to start the game with a home run at Truist Park.
Acuna and the Braves are in Atlanta on Friday, welcoming in the Phillies. Rookie sensation Mick Abel will start for the Phils, and although he has been very effective, he has also given up seven homers in five MLB starts. Abel has the highest HR/9 of all starting pitchers on Friday night. Most of the homers he has allowed have been to lefties, which is why Matt Olson (+230) has short odds, as well.
Both Olson and Acuna are good plays as long as the weather holds off in Atlanta, but of the two, I’m going with Acuna in my home run props because he has been so much hotter lately, and has especially thrived at home.
Brandon Lowe to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The most homer-friendly ballpark in play on Friday night is Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and the red-hot Rays roll in to face the still struggling Orioles and Tomoyuki Sugano.
Lowe has been one of the most productive hitters for Tampa lately, and the Rays have the most runs and the highest wOBA in the majors in the last 30 days. Lowe has five homers in his last 20 games and went yard on Thursday in Kansas City.
Lowe has a .338 batting average and .409 wOBA over his last 20 games with a 49.2% hard-hit rate and 15.4% barrel rate. He has an average exit velocity of 92.4 miles per hour during that stretch and 92.1 miles per hour on the season.
Lowe has four homers in his last 20 games in Baltimore, and he’ll be facing Sugano for the first time on Friday night. Sugano has a decent 3.55 ERA, but that isn’t backed up by his 4.81 FIP, 1.21 WHIP or 4.97 xERA. He has given up 14 homers in 15 starts, and left-handed hitters like Lowe have hit eight of those home runs with a .302 wOBA.
On Friday, Lowe’s home run props come at a juicy number in a park and matchup where he’s set up for success.
