Sunday is another big day of baseball as all 30 teams wrap up their weekend sets before heading to new series to start the week. Five games get started just 4:00 p.m. ET with Sunday Night Baseball featuring a huge matchup between the Phillies and Mets. From those six games, here are the three starting pitcher prop bets that stand out to me on the slate. Today’s picks include selections from JP Sears, Shohei Ohtani, and Jesus Luzardo.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
JP Sears over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-140)
Sears is at home facing the Guardians in the rubber game of their three-game series. The Athletics’ lefty has struggled this season at home at Sutter Health Park, giving up 32 hits and 21 runs in his six home starts. He has a 6.91 home ERA and has allowed a .288 batting average and .439 wOBA on that side of his splits.
Sears has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last seven starts overall, including each of his last three home outings. He gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Astros, while serving up three home runs to Houston.
Sears has given up too much hard contact in this hitter-friendly environment, and the Guardians should be able to get to him for at least three runs on Sunday afternoon, especially if Jose Ramirez goes yard, which I think he has a good chance to do, as I highlighted in my home run props of the day.
Shohei Ohtani under 2.5 strikeouts (-165)
Ohtani will be making his second pitching appearance of the season as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He didn’t have any strikeouts in his first outing against the Padres and gave up one run on two hits.
His stuff was sharp, and I think he’ll get back to elite form as he gets healthier, but there is definitely some rust to shake off after missing almost two years on the mound.
The bigger reason I like the under here, though, is that he’s still be on a strict pitch limit. He threw 28 pitches in one inning on Monday and could get up to two innings on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles, but even if he does, I don’t think he can get all the way to three strikeouts. If he gets two strikeouts in the first inning, he’ll likely need to throw too many pitches to go another frame.
I understand the line since I’m hyped to see him on the mound too, but this number seems too high when you take emotion out of it. The under seems like a great play in my starting pitcher prop bets for Sunday afternoon and evening.
Jesus Luzardo under 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
Sunday Night Baseball should be a great matchup between the Phillies and Mets, who come in with identical records of 46-31, tied atop the NL East.
The teams split the first two games of the series, and Luzardo will face off with David Peterson in a matchup of southpaws trying to give their team the division lead headed into the work week.
I don’t like to be a hater and take strikeout unders since cheering for Ks is always more exciting than cheering against them. However, the lines and odds for this are just too favorable to ignore, so I’m going with two unders in my starting pitcher prop bets on Sunday night.
Luzardo is a strikeout machine when he’s at his best, but he hasn’t been as locked in in his last few starts. He had double-digit strikeouts in four starts this season and has racked up 97 Ks in 83 2/3 innings, so asking him to get six against the Mets on Sunday doesn’t seem like too tall a task.
However, he has not been sharp lately. He had under five strikeouts in three of his last four games and issued four walks in just five-plus innings in his last start. He threw 103 pitches but only 59 strikes in that outing and something seems off with him since the Brewers crushed him for 12 runs in 3 1/3 innings on the last day of May.
The Mets do a good job at strikeout suppression as well, coming into this matchup in the bottom-10 of K% against lefties and in the last 30 days. Overall, they have the eighth-lowest K% in the majors this season, so they should be able to avoid striking out against Luzardo, especially if the lefty’s struggles continue. Getting the under at plus-money for Sunday night makes this a very juicy option in my starting pitcher prop bets, even though there is the risk of Luzardo finding a groove and blowing this number (and the Mets) away on Sunday night.
