Today, all 30 teams in Major League Baseball wrap up their weekend series. Seven of the 15 games on the schedule start at 3:00 p.m. ET or later, so let’s take a look at the second half of Sunday’s action and find a few fun home run props to close out the weekend with some more long balls. Taking a look at those seven games, a few home run props emerge as strong plays when considering the many factors that go into hitting home runs. Based on the matchup, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Sunday are from Michael Toglia, Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Michael Toglia to record 1+ home runs (+370)
Coors Field is always a great spot to start shopping for home run props, and the weather is especially favorable for dingers this Sunday afternoon. It’s expected to stay warm and humid with winds blowing out 10-to-15 miles per hour.
The Rockies have a favorable matchup at home as well since they’ll be looking to avoid a home sweep as they go up against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has allowed 15 homers this year in 15 starts, and 12 of those have come in his eight road starts. He has a 6.53 ERA and 4.76 FIP on the road and has been hit hard by both righties and lefties. Left-handed hitters have eight of his 15 homers allowed and a .377 wOBA against him.
In this matchup, the switch-hitting Toglia will bat left-handed, and since coming back from Triple-A, he’s been hitting very well. Toglia’s batting average and strikeout rate aren’t pretty, but he brings plenty of power potential, which is what we’re chasing with home run props.
The 26-year-old had 25 homers last season and has nine homers in his 60 games in the majors this year. He hit three balls in his quick 11-game stint at Triple-A and has come back hitting the ball hard.
In his six games since his promotion back to the bigs, he has hit three home runs with a hard-hit ball in each of the games and a 62.5% hard-hit rate and a 25.0% barrel rate in that short period.
When Toglia hits it at Coors, it flies, and he’s looked strong enough since returning that I love getting him at these odds on Sunday afternoon.
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+255)
Ramirez and the Guardians are in another very homer-friendly environment as they take on the Athletics in Sacramento. Sutter Health Park has been great for hitting home runs, and Ramirez is a good matchup against lefty JP Sears.
Ramirez is hitting .395 on the year against lefties with a .420 wOBA. He hasn’t homered since this blast on June 14, but he continually makes good contact and collects hard hits, especially against southpaws.
Sears has given up 18 home runs in his 15 starts this season, including 12 in his 27 1/3 innings at home. All but two of his home runs have been hit by right-handed hitters, which the switch-hitting Ramirez will be in this matchup. Sears has given up a 48.5% hard-hit rate and 12.4% barrel rate over his last six outings and has allowed nine homers in his last three home starts over 13 1/3 innings.
Sears’ tendency to get beat up at home and Ramirez’s excellent numbers against lefties make this one of the top home run props of the late afternoon this Sunday.
Juan Soto to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Soto helped the Mets snap their season-long seven-game losing streak on Saturday with a pair of home runs.
Soto has turned things around after a slow stretch in May and has smashed eight homers in his last 20 games. In those 20 games, he has a 59.6% hard-hit rate and 19.3% barrel rate. Over that stretch, he has an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles per hour, which is higher than any player in the MLB this season. Aaron Judge currently has an average exit velocity of 95.3 miles per hour, showing just how impressive Soto’s recent hot streak has been.
Even though it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, Soto has a good history against Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, going 5-for-13 with a home run in their last meetings. He’s been back to his regular slugging self lately, but his slump and the matchup against a lefty have the odds for his home run props in a favorable spot on Sunday Night Baseball.
