Some bets are designed to be held for a long time, giving bettors a chance to play the long game and get a great sweat over multiple days, weeks or even months. Other bets are quick-hitter options offering short-term payouts and instant gratification. Over the last few years, Major League Baseball has taken steps to speed up the game, adding in the pitch clock and trying to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time shrinking, one of the most popular quick ways to jump on the board for quick baseball picks is an NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for an NRFI bet on Sunday afternoon and evening.
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants (-130)
The Red Sox and Giants split the first two games of this series, and Sunday’s rubber game sets up to be a great pitching matchup between Robbie Ray and Lucas Giolito. Both veterans have been putting up good starts lately and have a good chance of getting through the first inning without giving up a run.
Ray has an impressive 2.68 ERA and 3.09 FIP in his 15 starts this season. It’s been a great bounceback year for the 33-year-old lefty, who only made eight starts over the last two seasons due to injury. Ray has a 2.29 ERA at home and has not allowed a run in the first inning in each of his last six starts.
The Red Sox have been good against lefties this season, but Ray has held them to zero or one runs in three of his last four starts against them.
On the other side of this matchup, Giolito has been much less consistent than Ray, but the 30-year-old righty has been locked in lately. He has a 4.73 ERA overall, but a 1.93 road ERA and a 2.84 ERA over his last five outings. He has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts, giving up just one unearned run in 12 innings on six hits against the Rays and Mariners.
If Giolito can continue dealing like he has been, he should be able to match Ray’s goose egg in the first inning in this afternoon’s matchup.
Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres (+100)
The Royals and Padres are both among the top teams to target for NRFI this season, so getting this at even money is a great value on Sunday afternoon. The Royals have held their opponents to no runs in the first inning more than any other team in the majors at 87.01%, while the Padres rank sixth at 77.63%.
The teams didn’t score in the first on Saturday and only a Bobby Witt Jr. home run unraveled the NRFI play on Friday in the first game of this series. In the finale, it’s Seth Lugo for the Royals taking on Randy Vasquez for the Friars, and that matchup explains why this is at +100.
Vasquez is the higher risk play since he has a 3.70 ERA and 5.53 FIP on the season, but he has stronger splits at home at Petco Park. In his seven home starts, he has held opponents to no runs in the first inning six times, including his last two home starts against the Pirates and Dodgers.
In his 13 starts this season, Lugo is 4-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 4.53 FIP. While those numbers are a step backward from his impressive season last year, Lugo has only allowed three runs in his last three starts. He has only given up a run in the first inning in two of his 13 games this season, though, and he should be especially focused for this start against his former team in San Diego.
In Lugo’s one year with the Padres, he had a 3.66 ERA at Petco Park, and I think both he and Vasquez will start Sunday afternoon’s matchup with a zero on the board.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (+105)
Since we’re taking long shots in today’s NRFI picks, let’s line up another one for Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets and Phillies both have strong offenses and have been good at jumping out to early leads this season, which is why the odds on this are long for an NRFI.
However, both starting pitchers in this matchup have shown the ability to limit damage and post dominant outings, so I think they can get through the first with no runs on Sunday.
For the Phillies, lefty Jesus Luzardo will look to help his team claim a win in this home series. In the first, he will probably have to deal with the red-hot Juan Soto, who I highlighted in my top home run props for the day. If he can avoid Soto going yard in the first inning, I like his chances to get through the top of the first.
Luzardo was lights out early in the year with a 1.95 ERA and 2.21 FIP in his first 10 starts. He then hit a rough patch and gave up 23 runs in three starts for a 16.34 ERA before finding his footing against the Cubs and Marlins in his last two outings. He hasn’t given up a run in the first inning in any of his last three starts and has only allowed a run in the first inning in four of his 15 starts overall.
Mets’ lefty David Peterson has been even sharper than Luzardo lately. He has not given up more than three runs in any of his 14 starts this season and has a 2.23 ERA and 2.82 FIP over his last seven starts. He has only allowed a run in the first inning twice this year and once in his last 13 outings.
The matchup is tough for both of these lefties on Sunday Night Baseball, but that’s baked into the odds, which give us plus-money just for each of them getting through one scoreless frame to start the nightcap to a busy day of baseball.
