I need to clarify something about this article immediately. This is not me endorsing particular players to hit a home run on Friday night — that’s this article, written by my colleague Zach Thompson. Instead, I’ll be taking a look at the home run prop bets that are currently the most popular on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and assessing whether or not the public is correct its adoration.
Make sense? Amazing. Let’s dive into this evening’s packed 14-game slate.
Most-Bet Home Run Props on 6/20/25
If I’m being 100% honest, I’m a little tired of writing up the rationale for Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber hitting home runs on a given night. All three are generational power hitters and they’re the only three men since the beginning of 2023 to have mashed at least 100 long balls. I think we all understand why they’re popular prop bets. Now that we have that out of the way…
Corbin Carroll 1 + Home Run (+300)
One thing to note immediately with Carroll is that he was not in the lineup on Thursday after getting hit in the hand with a pitch during Wednesday’s loss to the Blue Jays. It doesn’t seem too serious, but his presence would obviously impact his betting viability. The second thing to note would be the handedness of Austin Gomber, who is left-handed. The 31-year-old has made just a single start at the MLB level in 2025, but Gomber surrendered 56 opponent home runs from 2023 to 2024 — the fifth-most of any pitcher in that span. If you’re wondering, two of those 56 were hit by Carroll. That’s likely why bettors are interested in the young outfielder at Coors Field this evening, despite the left-on-left matchup. In 2025, Carroll is in possession of just a .188 ISO versus LHPs. In comparison, his ISO against RHPs is a stunning .373.
Elly De La Cruz 1+ Home Run (+450)
Unlike Carroll, De La Cruz is in the perfect handedness matchup on Friday night. While the former top prospect is a switch-hitter, De La Cruz’s splits have always skewed significantly to the left-hand side, as evidence by the 23-year-old’s career .116 ISO and 60 wRC+ as an RHB. Should De La Cruz pull a Cedric Mullins and simply bat left-handed all the time? That’s a conversation for a different day. Specific to this evening, De La Cruz and the Reds will square-off with Andre Pallante, who has seen his ERA jump to 4.83 after a few rough recent outings. Pallante technically has reverse-splits for an RHP, but at the end of the day, he’s a contact-oriented arm that’s allowing 1.30 opponent home runs per nine in 2025. That profile is great for De La Cruz, as the shortstop sports a 91st percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events (.467).
Rafael Devers 1+ Home Run (+295)
A classic revenge spot. It’s hilarious how quickly the Red Sox are travelling to San Francisco after trading Devers to the Giants this past Sunday night, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that that’s the main reason Devers is a popular home run pick this evening. That’s not to say Devers isn’t always worthy of the attention. The famously former third baseman comes into tonight’s matchup with the right-handed Hunter Dobbins owning a 97th percentile hard hit rate (55.1%) and 94th percentile barrel rate (16.1%). Still, Dobbins has only allowed six opponent long balls in 55.1 innings in 2025. Oracle Park is also the worst home run stadium in MLB across the past three seasons, per MLB Statcast. I’m not saying not to bet on Devers in this juicy situation, but don’t take too long a walk down narrative street.
