On Friday, 28 of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball will be in action under the lights for the start of a great weekend of awesome matchups. Six series are divisional contests, and there are some other interesting angles in the other matchups, including Rafael Devers facing his former team that just traded him to San Francisco. As we get hyped for another weekend of exciting action, let’s take a look at a few home run props to see if we can find a few long balls to start the weekend with a blast or two Considering the many factors that go into hitting home runs, including matchups, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Friday are from Brandon Lowe, Hunter Goodman, and Nick Kurtz.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Brandon Lowe to record 1+ home runs (+330)
The Rays continue their homestand in Tampa by hosting the Tigers this weekend. They split a four-game series with the Orioles to start the week, and Lowe homered in two of those games, giving him 15 homers on the season.
Five of Lowe’s 15 homers have come in his last 20 games, and he is hitting .308 over that span with a 50% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate. He has also connected on 11 of his 15 homers when playing in the Rays’ temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field which has proven to be a home run haven when it’s hot and the wind is blowing out (check and check for tonight).
Lowe will face Jack Flaherty of the Tigers in the first game of this series, and while Flaherty has been solid for the Tigers, he has given up 14 home runs in his 14 starts, including three in his most recent start against the Reds, even in the spacious confines of Comerica Park. On the road, Flaherty has a 4.41 ERA and has allowed a .324 wOBA. Left-handed hitters like Lowe have hit eight of the 14 homers against him and have a .320 wOBA on the season. Lowe has only faced Flaherty twice in his career, but did homer in those two at-bats.
Lowe is swinging a good stick and on the strong side of his splits in a good environment and matchup. All good signs to deliver another win for our home run props on Friday night.
Hunter Goodman to record 1+ home runs (+240)
Attacking the Rays at home in their homer-happy environment is one thing, but let’s go to the ultimate home run park and pick one of our home run props from Coors Field. It’s going to be warm with the winds blowing out 10-to-15 miles per hour, and at the elevation of Coors, it should be great hitting weather.
The Rockies are coming home for this series after taking three of four games in Washington and going 4-3 on their trip to the East. They’ll take on their divisional foes from Arizona this weekend, starting with Friday’s matchup with Zac Gallen.
Gallen has had a rough year, with a 5.19 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 4-8 record, and 15 home runs allowed in 15 starts. Opponents have a 10.4% barrel rate against him, which would be the highest mark for any season in his career. While he has actually faced more lefties than righties, right-handed hitters have nine of the 15 homers he has allowed this season and four of the seven he has given up on the road.
The Rockies have several righties with good pop, but the one that I’m including in my home run props for today is Hunter Goodman, who is having a great season for Colorado. He’s already set his personal best with 14 homers this season, and seven of those blasts have come in his last 15 games.
In those 15 games, Goodman is hitting .349 with a .501 wOBA, a 62.8% hard-hit rate, and a 23.3% barrel rate. Before you dismiss his production as “Coors-inflated,” be sure to know that nine of those 15 games were actually on the road.
Goodman has actually done most of his damage on the road, but if he keeps smashing the ball, home runs at Coors will certinaly come, especially in such perfect long ball conditions as we’ll have on Friday.
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+390)
The A’s and Guardians meet at Sutter Health Park on Friday night, continuing our theme of targeting players in homer-happy venues. From the many good options in this late-night matchup, I’m including Kurtz in my home run props since I love his raw power and value potential in his matchup with Tanner Bibee.
Kurtz is still under a calendar year from entering the MLB Draft but has skyrocketed through the minor leagues and is now mashing as the A’s everyday 1B. He had an adjustment period after his promotion, but he has really found a great groove over the last few weeks, despite a quick trip to the IL with a hip injury.
Kurtz has eight home runs in his last 14 games and went yard in four of his last five games. He’s hitting .315 with a 55% hard-hit rate and 22.5% barrel rate over those 14 games, and there has been nothing flukey about most of his recent blasts.
Eight of his nine homers this year have come against righties and seven have come at home, so he’s in an ideal spot against Bibee on Friday. Bibee gave up 22 homers last year in 31 games but is already up to 14 homers in just 14 starts this season. He is 4-6 with a 3.79 ERA but gives up enough dingers to remain a good target for home run props. Left-handed hitters have eight of the 14 homers he has allowed this year, and 11 of the 14 homers have come in his road starts.
Kurtz recent power binge is not just a fluke. It’s him starting to realize his incredibly high potential. His numbers haven’t quite caught up yet, so I love getting him at almost four-to-one on Friday night.
