I need to clarify something about this article immediately. This is not me endorsing particular players to hit a home run on Monday night — that’s this article. Instead, I’ll be taking a look at the home run prop bets that are currently the most popular on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and assessing whether or not the public is correct its adoration.
Make sense? Amazing. Let’s dive into this evening’s seven-game slate on the diamond.
Most-Bet Home Run Props on 6/16/25
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+295)
As you can see above, a majority of the most-bet player props on tonight’s MLB slate are home run props and Schwarber is the most popular of the bunch. It makes some sense. Not only does Schwarber enter Monday’s matchup with Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins with 22 long balls, a 99th percentile hard hit rate (57.6%) and a 98th percentile expected slugging rate (.597); but he’s also had a lot of success against Alcantara throughout his career, registering 10 hits and a .405 OBP in almost 50 plate appearances. Still, that hasn’t translated into a single home run off the former Cy Young Award winner. At the same time, most of these at-bats came against a version of Alcantara that wasn’t rocking a 7.14 ERA, so now would be the time to change that factoid.
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+255)
Raleigh hasn’t gone yard in a little over a week, with his two home run performance on June 7 against the Angels now starting to fade into the distance. No matter. Raleigh still leads the majors in long balls (26) and tonight’s matchup with Lucas Giolito is a tantalizing one. The veteran RHP has only actually conceded a single opponent home run in his past four starts, but Giolito’s underlying metrics are putrid. In eight outings, the former first-round pick has combined a second percentile opponent expected batting average (.313) with a sixth percentile opponent expected wOBA on batted ball events (.443) and the seventh percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.7). The fact that these struggles haven’t translated into more balls flying out of the park is a little hilarious. For his part, Raleigh has a 98th percentile barrel rate (20.7%). If he squares up Giolito on Monday, there’s a good chance it won’t be coming back.
James Wood 1+ Home Run (+400)
This is an interesting one. Wood is a former top prospect with 17 home runs this season, so it’s not like people backing him to go deep is straight out of left field, but it feels worth reminding people that this game is in Washington — not Colorado. Also, Carson Palmquist is a lefty. He’s a lefty that’s surrendered 2.05 opponent home runs per nine and was just re-called from Triple-A, but a lefty all the same. Still, Wood’s splits aren’t as dramatic as you might assume for a young, left-handed bat. While Wood isn’t recreating his .950 OPS against RHPs in same-hand matchups, he does sport a 139 sOPS+ versus southpaws. In simpler terms, he’s mashed five homers off LHPs in only 92 at-bats this season. Not bad. It’s not like the Rockies bullpen is all that strong, either. Wood could very easily see two or three PAs with right-handed Colorado relievers this evening.
