Monday’s another great day of the Major League Baseball season, with 14 teams in action starting the new work week with a new series. If you’re looking to start your week with a smash, let’s dive into some of the top home run props to see if we can find a few long balls to start the week with a smile. Considering the many factors that go into hitting home runs, including matchups, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Monday are Ryan McMahon, Brandon Lowe and Jose Altuve.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences–all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks–even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ryan McMahon to record 1+ home runs (+360)
The Rockies’ offense has been much better over the last couple of weeks, and McMahon has been a part of that turnaround. The veteran lefty has homered in two of his last three games and four of his last eight, bringing him to 10 homers on the season.
McMahon and the Rockies are headed up to Washington after avoiding a sweep in Atlanta with a 10-1 win on Sunday. They’ll take on Jake Irvin on Monday night, who has allowed 13 homers in 14 games. Almost all of the damage against him has come from left-handed hitters like McMahon. Lefties have hit 10 of the 13 home runs against him on the year and have a .497 slugging and .354 wOBA.
Based on the way McMahon has found his groove lately, Irvin should be a great matchup for him Monday night. For the season, McMahon has a 52.5% hard-hit rate, but over the last 16 games, he has cranked that up to a 63.2% hard-hit rate along with a 15.8% barrel rate. While his overall stats get a boost from playing home games at Coors Field, McMahon makes great contact at home and on the road, and he’s a nice off-the-radar option with good upside in Monday night’s home run props.
Brandon Lowe to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Lowe and the Rays are in a favorable home matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field with the wind blowing out in Tampa Bay this Monday night. There could be some rain in the area, but even if there’s a delay it doesn’t look like the game will be washed out. This is Florida weather, though, so nobody knows for sure.
In what should be a homer-friendly environment, Lowe and the Rays take on Zach Eflin and the Orioles. Eflin has given up 10 homers in just nine starts, allowing a 39.9% hard-hit rate on his way to a 4.08 ERA and 4.68 FIP. Left-handed hitters have smashed eight of those 10 homers while posting a .349 wOBA. Eflin has looked better in his recent starts than he did early in the season, but he’s still a solid matchup to target for home run props in Tampa.
Lowe has hit 13 home runs this season in 66 games. Nine of those 13 taters have been at home, and 11 have come against right-handed pitchers like Eflin. Even though he hasn’t homered in seven games, Lowe comes in with good momentum. He has a 52.5% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate over his last 20 contests with a .329 batting average, a .399 wOBA and four home runs.
Junior Caminero is a little hotter than Lowe right now, but because of Eflin’s splits and longer odds, I prefer Lowe to Caminero for home run props this Monday.
Jose Altuve to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Altuve and the Astros are in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park on Monday night. The wind is forecast to be blowing out with temperatures in the 80s, setting up a homer-friendly environment for Houston.
Altuve and the rest of the ‘Stros also have a favorable matchup against lefty J.P. Sears. Opponents have 15 homers against Sears on the season, nine of which have come at home and 13 of which have been hit by right-handed hitters. Sears didn’t give up any home runs in his last start but gave up multiple home runs in each of his last two home outings. Altuve is 9-for-22 (.409) in his career against Sears with three doubles and two home runs.
In his last 21 games, Altuve has hit six home runs with a .358 batting average, .428 wOBA and 32.9% hard-hit rate. Most of his homers this season have been at home and against righties, but I think his recent surge has a good chance of carrying over to this matchup on the road against a lefty.
With Sears’ struggles and Altuve’s recent production, I’m pumped to be able to include this pick to close out my home run props at a very value-heavy +500.
