Major League Baseball gets another work week off to a fresh start with seven series getting underway Monday night. A couple of games start just before 7:00 p.m. ET, and the action stretches well into the evening with three games on the West Coast, highlighted by Shohei’s return to the mound. He isn’t the only starting pitcher worth watching this Monday, so let’s dive into the markets on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some fun starting pitcher prop bets to target for the evening. After checking out all the options and matchups, my top plays of the night come from props for Jake Irvin, Ryan Pepiot and Shohei Ohtani.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jake Irvin over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+100)
In one of the early games, the Nationals host the Rockies, and Jake Irvin will get the ball for his 15th start of the year. Irvin has a 5-3 record but also has a 4.21 ERA and 4.78 FIP. He has allowed a 45.8% hard-hit rate and posted a 1.25 WHIP, and his xERA is even higher than his ERA at 5.10. Irvin has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts and in exactly half of his 14 starts this season.
For most of the season, the Rockies have been one of the worst offenses in the majors, but they have been playing much better over the last few weeks. In fact, over the last week they rank in the top 10 in runs, batting average, and wOBA. I’m not trying to tell you the Rockies have figured it out or turned the corner or are going to be decent from now on. What I do think, though, is that their year-long struggles are significantly impacting the odds for this earned runs prop and skewing it in their favor for Monday night.
Irvin has been so hittable lately and the Rockies will know they need to get runs early with struggling rookie Carson Palmquist taking the mound on their side of the matchup. I expect a high-scoring game in both directions, and think that the Rockies will be able to get to Irvin for at least three runs.
One Rockie I especially like in this matchup is Ryan McMahon, who I included in my home run props for the day
Ryan Pepiot over 17.5 outs recorded (-135)
I highlighted Pepiot against the Orioles in my MLB DFS Bargains for this matchup against the Orioles, and I think he’ll be able to get through at least six innings to get to the over in this starting pitcher prop bet.
Pepiot came up just short of this line in his most recent start, recording 17 outs against the Red Sox. He had gone over it in each of his previous six outings in a row, though, including home starts against the Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros and Phillies.
On the season, Pepiot has averaged 5.83 innings per outing, putting him almost exactly on this number. He’ll likely go either way by a very narrow margin, but since he’s at home against an Orioles lineup that has been underwhelming this season, I think he’ll be able to get back to his previous run of getting through the sixth.
The Rays are coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets, but the bullpen did have to work 11 1/3 innings over the last three games, so getting a good, solid outing from Pepiot will be important to setting it up for success for the rest of this series.
Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 strikeouts (+100)
Ohtani will be making his first pitching appearance in 663 days on Monday night when he gets the ball against the Padres. It will be his first time pitching for the Dodgers, so you know he’ll be fired up at home facing a division rival.
While he definitely could get multiple strikeouts in one inning, he’ll have a much better shot of hitting the over in this even-money prop if he pitches two innings. It all depends on how efficient he is with his pitch count, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets a second frame.
Reports have been that his velocity is back and that he has been throwing his full pitch mix (sweeper, cutter, split, 4SFB, slider). During his bullpens and build-up he has gotten to around 40-50 pitches, so he could get that second inning if the first goes quickly.
The last time he pitched in the majors, Ohtani had a 31.5% strikeout rate in 23 games for the Angels in 2023. He finished that year with 167 strikeouts in 132 innings.
With the added excitement and adrenaline in play for his return to the mound, I think he’ll get two strikeouts on Monday night. He isn’t really an option as a pitcher for DFS with such a small workload, but this simple strikeout option in my top starting pitcher prop bets is a fun way to back Ohtani in his reutrn to the mound Monday night.
