There’s 14 games on the MLB schedule for this evening. That means 28 teams with at least nine players coming to the plate to hit. Things can get overwhelming pretty quick when you’re trying to nail down certain odds. Allow me to assist.
I won’t be breaking down the players I think have the best odds to hit a home run on Friday — that’s this article. Instead, I’ll be looking at the three players with the absolute shortest odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The “most-likely” to hit a home run, if you will. Let’s see how smart the book really is, shall we?
Shortest Home Run Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Judge (+210)
After registering his 25th home run of the season on Wednesday, Judge was held out of the lineup for the first time this season in Thursday’s narrow 1-0 victory over the Royals. Judge did appear as a pinch-hitter in that contest, striking out in his lone at-bat, but the fact remains that the reigning AL MVP has racked up four long balls across his last three starts for the Yankees. That’s pretty good. As are Judge’s 100th percentile marks in barrel rate (24.2%), expected slugging percentage (.731) and expected wOBA (.472). All that said, Judge having the shortest odds in the whole league to hit a home run on Friday is kind of strange, simply given the fact he and New York are set to face Garrett Crochet. The left-hander has been giving up a few more homers lately than he was in April, but Crochet still owns a 2.97 xERA and a 31.3% strikeout rate. In Judge’s five career at-bats against the southpaw, Crochet has struck him out four times.
Shohei Ohtani (+210)
Another generational hitter in a difficult matchup. Like Judge, there’s never technically a bad time to bet on Ohtani to hit a home run, which is why it feels very natural for the Japanese superstar to carry odds this short for this evening’s contest against the Giants. Ohtani only has one long ball so far in June, but don’t let that small sample size fool you. Dating back to the beginning of 2021, Ohtani is one of just two players to collect at least 200 homers. Specific to 2025, Ohtani ranks in the 100th percentile in both hard hit rate (62.4%) and average exit velocity (95.5). You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but he’s one of the best we’ve ever seen. Still, Logan Webb is arguably in the midst of the best campaign of his career, with his 2.13 FIP the top qualified mark in the NL. Webb’s 56.7% ground ball rate also sits sixth in MLB. There’s a reason Webb’s surrendered the fewest home runs per nine of any qualified pitcher since the start of 2024 (0.49).
Matt Olson (+230)
On the surface, it would appear that Olson is having a decent season for the Braves, coming into this evening’s action with 14 home runs in his 292 plate appearances. However, under the hood, the numbers are so, so much better. Olson sits in the 98th percentile of the league in hard hit rate (58.0%) and the 97th percentile in barrel rate (18.7%). Let’s just say that the 31-year-old has hit some deeeeep doubles in 2025 and his long ball total could be much higher if not for a little poor luck. Remember, this is a man that led MLB in home runs as recently as 2023. Olson will get a chance to add to his total on Friday with German Marquez and the Rockies traveling to Atlanta. Marquez somehow has an 8.82 ERA away from Coors this year and he’s conceding 1.42 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. It’s undeniably a great spot to go deep.
