The people were really hoping today’s MLB Best Bets column would begin with a celebration of Roman Anthony’s call-up ahead of the Red Sox’s homestand. Alas. The wait continues. Meanwhile, I’ll be hitting some more previews and predictions for tonight’s slate of games, but so far I’ve written up the Pirates vs. Marlins, Red Sox vs. Rays, and Diamondbacks vs. Mariners games for this evening. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews. And you might notice a trend, today.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners u9.5 total runs (-120)
The pitching matchup heavily favors the under here, with Merrill Kelly boasting a 3.43 ERA and an impressive 0.99 WHIP, especially at home, where he’s allowed just 1.6 HR/9 (league average is 1.02). Kelly’s ability to limit baserunners is a major factor in the value here, as he’s allowed only 0.95 HR/9 this season, keeping the ball in the park—something Seattle, ranked 24th in batting average (.239), has struggled to consistently overcome.
On the flip side, Emerson Hancock’s 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP raise concerns, but his 3.86 ERA on the road (in five starts) shows he’s a little more reliable away from T-Mobile Park. However, Hancock still gives up 1.4 HR/9, and against a lineup like Arizona’s, which ranks fourth in home runs (91), that’s a recipe for limited damage—especially in a ballpark with a controlled environment, where the roof will be closed.
Seattle has shown offensive inconsistencies, with 1.14 HR/game and a .239 batting average, ranking 20th in the league in runs scored. The under has hit in five of Seattle’s last seven road games and all six previous meetings between these teams.
Given both teams’ ability to limit extra-base hits and the controlled conditions at Chase Field, this one feels like a low-scoring affair. Pitching depth and suppressed power prevail.
Red Sox vs. Rays u8.5 total runs (-110)
Tampa Bay’s offense has cooled off recently, ranking 14th in runs per game (4.7), and while their lineup still features power, they’ve struggled to get consistent production against right-handed pitchers. With Kutter Crawford taking the mound for Boston, his 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP don’t scream shutdown, but he has a solid 3.96 xFIP and a 24.6% K-rate that should keep the Rays from running away with this one.
On the Rays’ side, Zach Eflin is riding a solid stretch with a 3.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and his advanced stats (3.47 xERA, 9.4 K/9) suggest he’s been even better than his surface-level numbers. The Red Sox, ranked 13th in runs per game (4.9), have been fairly reliant on a power surge that could be stymied by Eflin’s ability to limit hard contact. Tampa’s bullpen has been the best in baseball with a 3.09 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, helping to seal games when Eflin departs.
The Under is well-supported by trends, with five of the last seven games between these teams hitting the under. Considering Eflin’s control, the Rays’ bullpen, and both offenses’ recent struggles with consistency, this game feels destined for a lower-scoring finish.
Pirates vs. Marlins u8.0 total runs (-105)
Dangerous game, here, betting on three straight unders. Having said that, both teams have been prone to offensive inconsistencies recently, with Pittsburgh’s bats struggling against solid pitchers and Miami having a tendency to underperform against right-handed starters.
Let’s start with the pitching: Rich Hill for the Pirates, despite his age, has been effective at limiting hard contact, allowing just a 0.97 HR/9 this season. His 4.06 ERA and 3.78 xFIP suggest he’s capable of keeping Miami’s lineup in check, especially with their below-average wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
On the flip side, Braxton Garrett has quietly been very solid for the Marlins. He has a 3.57 ERA and a 9.1 K/9 rate, which should bode well for him against a Pirates team that has been striking out at a high rate (25.5% K-rate vs. lefties). Miami’s bullpen, too, is in strong form, ranking in the top 10 for ERA and FIP, so they should be able to handle any late-game situations.
Now, look at the scoring form: Pittsburgh has averaged just 3.7 runs per game over their last 10, and Miami has been similarly unimpressive, averaging 4.2. This feels like a game where pitching dominates, and with both teams struggling to produce big innings consistently, it’s hard to see them clearing a high total.
Three unders.
