After a busy weekend, Major League Baseball has seven games on Monday’s schedule. Seven new series underway means plenty of options to choose from as you build your first betting card of the week. If you’re looking to swing for the fences and target some home run props this Monday, check out my top three plays of the day. Looking at the options and matchups on the board, my favorite three targets for home run props are Elly De La Cruz, Rafael Devers and Byron Buxton.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks even if everything is in their favor. The upside to playing home run props is that they do offer big returns when they hit, and they are also always a fun way to flex your knowledge. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robin formats to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit, like they did on Saturday when Aaron Judge and Josh Naylor both delivered for my home run props.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Elly De La Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+285)
De La Cruz homered on Sunday in Chicago and has 12 home runs on the season. Seven of those 12 homers have come in his last 20 games during which he has gone 21-for-78 (.269) with 12 extra-base hits compared to just nine singles, giving him a .333 ISO and .394 wOBA.
Over those 20 games, Elly has a 52.7% hard-hit rate and a 20.0% barrel rate. He has at least one barrel in each of his last five games, and he’ll look to keep making that kind of contact as he and the Reds return to Great American Ball Park, which is usually a homer-friendly environment.
De La Cruz also makes sense as one of the best home run props of the night since he’s in a good matchup against Aaron Civale, who has the highest HR/9 of all the probable pitchers this Monday. The veteran righty’s sample size is incredibly small, but he has served up four home runs in 12 innings, and three of those have been to left-handed batters. The switch-hitting De La Cruz has hit 10 of his 12 homers as a left-handed batter against right-handed pitching, so the situation sets up well for him if he keeps catching barrels to start the new week.
Rafael Devers to record 1+ home runs (+390)
In the other early game, the Red Sox come home and take on Tyler Anderson and the Angels at Fenway. Since it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, Devers comes at a great value number with his odds at +390 in the home run props for Monday.
Devers has 12 homers on the season, with half of those coming in his last 20 games. He’s hitting .315 over that stretch with a 46.4% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate. Of his 12 homers, eight have come at home, including each of his last five home runs. Those five blasts came on the team’s last homestand, when he had a 53.1% hard-hit rate and 15.6% barrel rate in 10 games against the Braves, Mets and Orioles.
On Monday, he’ll face Anderson, but don’t be scared off by the lefty-lefty matchup. Devers has hit three homers this season against lefties with a .325 average and .392 wOBA. On the other side of the matchup, Anderson has given up 11 homers this season, tied for the most of any starting pitcher on the slate. Lefties have hit five of those 11 homers while posting a .389 wOBA against him. On top of that, Devers is 3-for-7 with a home run in his past at-bats against Anderson.
Coming home could jumpstart Devers once again, and I like him as one of the top home run props on the board since he comes at such a value rate.
Byron Buxton to record 1+ home runs (+340)
The friendliest environment on the board for home run props this Monday will likely be Sutter Health Park, where the Athletics host the Twins. The forecast is for temperatures in the 80s and winds blowing out at 10 miles per hour.
Joe Ryan and Luis Severino face off in this matchup, and Severino and the A’s bedraggled bullpen are the better target to attack. Severino is 1-4 in his 12 starts with a 3.89 ERA overall, but he has a 6.20 home ERA and 4.00 xFIP at home. He has given up four homers this season, and all four have been in his 40 innings at home.
Buxton has homered against Severino in the past while going 1-for-4, and he has looked good since coming off the seven-day injured list over the weekend. He didn’t homer in his two games back, but he did pick up two hits in each game with a hard-hit ball in each game.
In his last 12 games dating back to before the injury, Buxton has four homers, a 46.9% hard-hit rate and a 15.6% barrel rate. Eight of his 10 homers this season have come off righties like Severino, and in this homer-happy spot, he has the potential to deliver a late-night win to my home run props.
The Athletics have lost 17 of their last 18 games, and over the last two weeks they have given up a whopping 31 home runs in just 13 games. All of the Twins’ power options are good plays in this matchup, but Buxton is my favorite play of the bunch.
