Major League Baseball has a massive Saturday schedule with all 30 teams in action throughout the afternoon and evening. After a couple of early afternoon games, nine games start shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET, and four more are slated for under the lights. If you’re looking to swing for the fences and target some home run props this Saturday, check out my top three plays of the day. Looking at the options and matchups on the board, my favorite three targets for home run props are Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge and Josh Naylor.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that, by their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are not “safe” picks. They do offer big returns when they hit and are also always a fun way to flex your knowledge. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Altuve to record 1+ home runs (+700)
Altuve and the Astros are hosting the Rays and Zack Littell on Saturday afternoon at Daikin Park. His odds remain extremely long even though he has picked up his home run production over the last few games and should be in a getable matchup against Littell, who has a higher HR/9 than any other starting pitcher on the two main slates.
Altuve has nine homers on the season after going yard five times in his last eight games. He has hit .406 with a .531 wOBA over that stretch, and it hasn’t been flukey, as indicated by his 48.1% hard-hit rate and 14.8% barrel rate in those games.
Seven of his nine homers have come at home and seven of his nine homers have also come off righties like Littell.
Littell has been solid with a 3.97 ERA overall but a 5.12 FIP and 4.73 xERA that show he has given up solid contact against. He has allowed 14 homers in his 11 games, including eight coming on the road.
Altuve’s recent success and Littell’s issues with home runs make the veteran 2B one of my top home run props of the day, and it’s an extremely high value one, since it comes at +700.
Aaron Judge to record 1+ home runs (+135)
I debated whether to include Judge or Shohei Ohtani in my home run props since their odds are so much lower than anyone else’s. They’re both much more likely to go yard than anyone else on the slate, but it comes at much shorter odds. Ultimately, I opted to include Judge but also point out that this prop brings a much lower return since it’s much more likely to happen. Whether that’s what you’re after totally depends on your risk tolerance and why you’re playing home run props.
Judge is one of the best fantasy plays of the day as well, and he gets a great matchup against Landon Knack. Knack allowed six homers in just 29 1/3 innings this season and five home runs in his last three games. Right-handed hitters like Judge have hit five of those six home runs with a .291 batting average and .398 wOBA against Knack this season.
Over his last 19 games, Judge has seven home runs with a 55.8% hard-hit rate and 19.2% barrel rate. Against Knack, Judge should be in a good spot to deliver another long ball this Saturday night.
Josh Naylor to record 1+ home runs (+550)
The value in Altuve and Naylor in my home run props for this Saturday should balance out the shorter odds Judge brings if you stack these together in a parlay or a round robin format.
I had Naylor as my prediction for multiple total bases on Friday night and he delivered, going 2-for-4 with a pair of singles on Friday against the Nationals. On Saturday, I think he has a good shot at being even better and going yard.
On the season, Naylor has six homers, two of which have come during his recent hot streak that dates back over his last 15 games. During that span, he has a 43.6% hard-hit rate, and over his last six games, he has racked up 11 hard-hit balls while going 9-for-25 (.360) with a double, a triple and a home run.
Naylor has a good matchup against Nats’ righty Michael Soroka, who is 1-3 in his five starts this season with a 5.61 ERA, 4.48 FIP and five home runs allowed. Four of those homers have been hit by lefties like Naylor, who have a .574 SLG and .388 wOBA against him. Soroka has been prone to giving up homers throughout his career, and lefties have done most of the damage. In that split, Corbin Carroll is another lefty whose home run props make sense on Saturday, but I like Naylor’s recent form and longer odds a little better.
