In an AL Central series that starts this Monday, the White Sox welcome in the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are on a nice roll, winning six of their last seven games and expanding their lead in the division to six games. The White Sox are already 20.5 games behind the Tigers, coming into this series at 13-41 after losing six of their last seven. The White Sox were just swept by the Orioles and managed just five runs in the three losses.
The road-team Tigers are the heavy favorites at -238 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Tigers vs. White Sox on Monday night.
Tigers vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Both teams have been playing low-scoring games lately but both starting pitchers have been struggling as well. Over the last two weeks, the White Sox have only averaged 3.7 runs per game, while hitting .236 as a team with a .308 wOBA and 22.4% K%.
The Tigers’ offense has actually been even worse, averaging only 3.3 runs per game over that span with a .203 batting average, .269 wOBA and an MLB-high 27.7% K%. The fact that they’ve been winning despite their offensive struggles shows how sharp their pitching has been. Over that same two-week span, the Tigers have a 3.10 ERA and 2.89 FIP, which is the second-lowest in the majors.
The Tigers will hope that impressive run of production continues as they give the ball to Jack Flaherty, who is 3-6 with a 3.94 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 10.9 K/9 over his 11 starts this season. His 29.9% K% has helped him get to 72 strikeouts in his 59 1/3 innings.
In his last start, Flaherty gave up just two hits and a walk in six scoreless innings. It was a nice bounce-back outing for the veteran, who had allowed 15 runs in his previous four outings.
On the other side of the matchup, the White Sox will counter with Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old Cannon is in his second season in the majors and is 2-6 in his 11 games with a 4.15 ERA, 4.36 FIP and 6.8 K/9. He has a 17.4% K% but has picked up at least four strikeouts in six of his last eight games with an average of 4.0 Ks per game.
He has lost each of his last two outings, allowing eight runs in 10 2/3 innings and a 56.4% hard-hit rate over those two outings. Cannon has been hit hard by lefties, who have a .278 average and .343 wOBA with four homers in 125 plate appearances.
Tigers vs. White Sox pick, best bet
Since both teams have averaged under four runs per game over the last week, the under on the total runs makes sense. Flaherty showed enough upside in his last start that he should be able to handle that side of things, and I’m not convinced the Tigers have enough ability to roar to post a big number on their side either. I think the Tigers win a low-scoring game in the series opener in the Windy City.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Total Runs (-108)
Both teams have leaned slightly toward the under on the season, and games at Guaranteed Rate Field average a total of 7.9 runs per game. Each of the White Sox’s last three games has been under the run total and four of the last five games for the Tigers.
Strong Lean: Colt Keith over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+100)
I detailed Keith’s recent success in my DFS value plays for the day, and I like getting him in this player prop at even money for multiple hits, runs and RBIs. He has gone over this line in six of his last seven games and 11 of his last 18 with multiple at-bats.
