The Padres and Pirates have split the first two games of their three-game set in San Diego. The rubber game of the series is the final afternoon matchup before the Sunday Night Baseball, and it will get underway at 5:10 p.m. ET.
On Saturday, the Pirates got a strong start from Bailey Falter and shut out the Padres, 5-0. The Pirates improved to 22-37 after winning three of their last four games, while the Padres slid to 32-24 after dropping two of their last three. San Diego is 3-2 on its homestand against the Marlins and Pirates and will look to pick up a win before heading on the road for a tough trip to San Francisco and Milwaukee.
The home-team Padres are the favorites at -155 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Pirates at Padres ahead of the final contest of their three-game weekend set.
Pirates at Padres prediction, preview
The first two games of this series have each been low-scoring contests. The Padres won 3-2 on Friday and the Pirates won 5-0 on Saturday. Both offenses have been a little sluggish lately overall, so they should be favorable matchups for both starting pitchers.
The Pirates will give the ball to veteran Andrew Heaney, who has a 3-4 record in 11 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 4.47 FIP. He has 44 strikeouts in his 60 2/3 innings but has limited damage due to a signficantly above-average 80.4% strand rate.
He’ll be in a good matchup against the Padres, though, since they have struggled against lefties all season and have only hit .198 over the last two weeks, the lowest mark in the majors over that span. They have only averaged 3.2 runs per game over that stretch, with a .263 wOBA that is the third-worst in the majors during that span. They had no answers for Falter on Saturday, and Heaney will look to keep them quiet on Sunday as well.
Heaney will be matched up against Randy Vasquez, who was also spotlighted in one of my top starting pitcher props for the day. Vasquez has done a good job limiting damage all season, going 3-4 in his 11 appearances with a 3.58 ERA, 4.96 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. He has given up three runs or fewer in six straight starts and has just a 2.89 ERA in his five starts in May.
The Pirates should be a good matchup for Vasquez, even though their bats have been a little warmer than the Padres’ have been recently. The Pirates have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors this season and are hitting just .228 with a .289 wOBA as a team. Their 79 wRC+ on the season means their run production is 21% below league average on the year.
Pirates at Padres pick, best bet
Since both offenses have not been able to get much going in this series or at all lately, I’m surprised the run line is so high. I get that neither starting pitcher is especially flashy and dominant, but both have turned in solid outings and found ways to be effective.
The Padres’ offense has gone almost completely missing over the last two weeks, and I’m not confident they’ll get going against Heaney after yesterday’s shutout. The under on their team run line is -125 for under 4.5, but since I’m not sure that the Pirates can score a bunch of runs either, I prefer just taking the under for the game at almost even money.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 total runs (-102)
The under has hit in 18 of the 29 games played at Petco Park this season. The under is 34-22-3 in the Pirates’ games and 31-23-2 in the Padres’ games.
Strong Lean: Randy Vasquez over 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
As I detailed in my starting pitcher prop bets, Vasquez has been picking up more strikeouts lately while the Pirates’ strikeout rate is trending up. He should be able to get at least four strikeouts, and I don’t hate climbing the ladder and throwing a little bit on 5+ strikeouts at +195.
