Sunday afternoon starts with a flurry of MLB action with 11 games starting before 2:30 p.m. ET. Four games finish off the busy day at 4:10 p.m. ET or later, keeping the action going throughout the late afternoon and evening. From those four matchups, there are some nice starting pitcher prop bets to check out, so let’s take a look at the top plays from Randy Vasquez, Chris Paddack and Corbin Burnes.
Overall this week, my starting pitcher prop bets have gone 10-4 after a nice bounceback 2-1 on Saturday. Hopefully, these picks will keep the hot streak rolling on Sunday afternoon.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Randy Vasquez over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Vasquez has been solid for the Padres this season, going 3-4 in his 11 outings with a 3.58 ERA, 4.96 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. His strikeout numbers for the year have been pretty low, since he has just a 13.4% K% and 5.2 K/9. Both are lower than his mark across 20 starts last season, and recently he has been picking up his strikeout production to be closer to his career averages.
In his last four starts, he has gone over this strikeout line of 3.5 strikeouts. You can definitely climb the Vasquez strikeout ladder as well and go with 5+ strikeouts at a very juicy +200.
In three of his last four outings, Vasquez has five strikeouts, including each of his last two home starts, which were against the Angels and Marlins. In Sunday’s matchup, he’ll take on the Pirates, who rank in the top-10 in K% in the majors over the last two weeks, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game. This will be his second start against the Pirates this season after holding them to just one run in five innings while striking out three back on May 3.
Vasquez’ increased strikeouts since that outing and the Pirates’ increased strikeout rate should let him go over this prop Sunday afternoon.
Chris Paddack over 17.5 outs recorded (-115)
The Twins and Mariners have played a pair of dramatic extra-inning games while splitting the first two games of their three-game series. In Sunday’s finale, Paddack will get the start for the Twins.
His team will need Paddack to cover as many innings as possible after using seven relief pitchers to cover 6 1/3 innings in its 11-inning loss on Saturday night.
Paddack should be up to the task since he has been in a good groove lately, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. He has gotten exactly 16 outs in each of his last two outings after recording 22 and 21 outs in wins over the Giants and Orioles. In his last four starts, he is averaging 6 2/3 innings, but for this outs recorded line to be an over, he just has to get through six innings.
The Mariners’ offense has been scuffling a bit, hitting just .233 over their last 13 games and averaging 3.9 runs per game. Paddack hasn’t reached 100 pitches in any outing this season, but he has been efficient enough to still get to the over in this pick in my starting pitcher prop bets, since his team could definitely use a long outing from him.
Corbin Burnes 3+ Earned Runs Allowed (+145)
The Diamondbacks are struggling badly, and the Nationals are surging coming into their Sunday afternoon matchup at Chase Field. The Dbacks have lost nine of their last 10 games, and yesterday, starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt got smashed and gave up eight runs without recording an out, leaving the bullpen on cleanup duty and delivering one of the fastest wins of the season to my starting pitcher prop bets.
Burnes will have to try and give that bullpen a break and will likely log as many innings as he can, regardless of the score. He is 3-2 in his 10 games since signing with Arizona this past offseason, posting a 2.72 ERA, 4.11 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. He gave up three runs to the Dodgers two starts ago, but he has been pretty locked in otherwise.
Despite his good recent outings, I’m taking this long shot in the third of my starting pitcher prop bets with his alternate runs allowed line. The main reason I like these odds is that the Nationals have been so impressive lately at the plate. They scored 10 runs on Saturday in just the first inning and have scored at least nine runs in each of their last four games.
