Saturday is another busy summer day full of plenty of action from around the diamonds. All 30 teams are on the schedule Saturday with a couple of early afternoon games before a big wave of nine games just after 4:00 p.m. ET. Four more games close out the action under the lights, highlighted by a World Series rematch in Los Angeles. With so many good matchups on the board, there are plenty of starting pitcher props to consider as you fill out your betting card. In this post, I’ll give you my top plays, including picks from Jesus Luzardo, Brandon Pfaadt and Bailey Falter.
After starting the week hot and going 8-1 on Sunday, Monday and Wednesday, my starting pitcher props had a rough Friday night. I’ll try and bounce back this Saturday with the three starting pitcher prop bets in this post.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)
Luzardo has been extremely impressive in his first 11 starts for the Phillies this season. The lefty is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA, 2.25 FIP and 77 strikeouts in 67 innings. He has a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 10.3 K/9. He has averaged exactly seven strikeouts per outing but is coming off back-to-back games with 10 strikeouts. He has at least six strikeouts in all but one of his five home starts, and I love him to get to seven in this matchup at plus money as one of my top starting pitcher prop bets for Saturday.
The Brewers rank near the middle of the league in strikeout rate over the last two weeks, against lefties, and overall this season. They have averaged 8.2 strikeouts per game over the last week after striking out 13 times in the first game of this series on Friday.
Taijuan Walker had six strikeouts in four innings in his start on Friday, but Luzardo’s elite stuff should help him get to at least seven strikeouts and last a little longer as he works to help the Phillies draw even in their series after the Brewers won Friday, 6-2.
Bailey Falter over 16.5 outs recorded (-125)
The Pirates have top pitching prospects putting pressure on the veteran members of the rotation, but Falter has been pretty solid overall this year. The 28-year-old lefty is 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA, 4.15 FIP, and a solid 1.14 WHIP.
He has averaged 5 1/3 innings, and will need to get to 5 2/3 to get the over in this prop. He has gone at least 5 2/3 in four of his last five starts. He had a seven-inning outing (21 outs) against the Padres earlier this month, allowing just one run on two hits to the Friars.
The Padres offense has struggled lately after their hot start to the season. They are averaging just 3.25 runs in the last 12 games while hitting .209 as a team, the third-lowest mark of any team in the majors. They’ve also had issues with lefties like Falter, so he should be able to have another solid outing.
While I’m not sure he can be quite that effective again in this rematch, I do think he’ll get over this outs recorded line for one of my favorite starting pitcher props for Saturday.
Brandon Pfaadt over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-120)
Pfaadt has allowed three earned runs or more in three straight outings and four of his last five. All of those games were on the road, but even though tonight’s matchup is at home, I don’t think he’ll be able to hold the Nationals to two runs or fewer.
In each of their last three games, the Nats have scored nine runs, and over the last two weeks, they’re averaging 6.0 runs per game while hitting .269 with a .347 wOBA, the second-highest team wOBA over that timeframe. The Nats have plenty of left-handed hitters, who have been giving Pfaadt trouble in his last few starts.
The 26-year-old D-Backs righty has given up five home runs in his last three starts with a 7.16 FIP in those games against the Giants, Dodgers and Cardinals. He also faced the Nationals earlier this season on April 4, earning the win but giving up four runs in six innings.
Merrill Kelly only lasted five innings on Friday night, so the D-Backs will try to get as many innings out of him as possible, which I think will lead to him giving up at least three runs and going over this line in the third of my favorite starting pitcher prop bets.
