The Nationals are suddenly smashing the ball while the Diamondbacks can’t seem to find a way to win. On Friday, the trend continued for both teams as the Nationals got a 9-7 win in the series opener. The win moved the Nationals to 27-30 on the season after three straight victories, and the Diamondbacks have dropped eight of their last nine games and also sit at 27-30 coming into this matchup.
The Diamondbacks are still heavy home favorites at -185 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at an 9.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Diamondbacks vs. Nationals ahead of the second contest of their three-game weekend set.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals prediction, preview
In the second game of this series, Michael Soroka will start for Washington while Brandon Pfaadt gets the ball for Arizona.
Soroka is 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA, 4.48 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. He has allowed a 46.1% hard-hit rate and multiple runs in every start while serving up five home runs in five starts. Four of those five home runs have been hit by lefties, who have a .388 wOBA against him, and the Diamondbacks have a lineup stuffed with left-handed options that could cause problems for Soroka.
On the other side, Pfaadt has also been prone to give up home runs, with 12 homers allowed in 11 starts. He has given up a 50.3% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate. He has a 5.40 ERA, 6.23 FIP and 1.35 WHIP over his five starts in May. I highlighted a pick for Pfaadt in my top starting pitcher props of the day.
Both starting pitchers have been shaky, and both offenses have plenty of potential. Young prospects fill both lineups, led by James Wood of the Nationals and Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks. Wood has been hotter lately, as I examined in my MLB stacks for Saturday night’s slate. The Nationals should be in a good spot with all their young lefties against Pfaadt, since he has given up so much hard contact.
The Diamondbacks also have good potential, though, due to Soroka’s recent struggles. Arizona’s offense ranks in the top 10 in batting average, wOBA and wRC+ over the last two weeks. The Snakes also usually perform well at home, where they have a 120 wRC+ and a .349 wOBA that is the third-highest in MLB behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. I also included Josh Naylor as one of my top home run props of the day.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Two of the hottest hitters coming into this match are Wood and Ketel Marte. Wood has gone 24-for-76 (.316) in his last 20 games with six doubles, six homers, a .431 wOBA and a 65.4% hard-hit rate. In his last 12 games, he has 35 total bases, averaging just under three total bases per contest.
Marte has gone 16-for-48 (.333) with two doubles and five home runs over his last 12 games with 33 total bases. He has a 50% hard-hit rate and 19% barrel rate over that time frame and is all the way back after missing time in April on the IL.
Best Bet: James Wood & Ketel Marte 5+ Combined Total Bases (+175)
The combo prop gives you two key power hitters in juicy matchups with strong recent form. Either one could get to five total bases on their own and getting them combined at plus money gives many paths to victory.
Strong Lean: Over 9.5 runs (-105)
Neither of these starting pitchers inspires much confidence. Friday’s game had 16 runs scored and the Nationals have gone over this total in three of their last four. Games at Chase Field average 10.3 runs per game this season.
