Major League Baseball has a very busy Friday night, but there aren’t many divisional matchups on tap. In one of the few games between division rivals, the Tigers head to Kansas City to take on the Royals in a nice AL Central matchup at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium.
The Tigers lead the AL Central by six games over the Guardians and the Twins, while the Royals are seven games back. The Tigers are -122 road favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Tigers vs. Royals ahead of the 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch
Tigers vs. Royals prediction, preview
The Tigers roll into the Show Me State playing well after sweeping the Giants to start the week. They have won four in a row and are 11-5 in their last 15 games. They face the Royals, who lost two of three to the Reds and Twins in their two most recent series but did get a win on Wednesday afternoon in their last game.
Both teams had yesterday off so the should have well-rested bullpens coming into the three-game set. The Tigers took three of four from the Royals earlier this year in Detroit, allowing four runs or fewer in each of the four games in that series.
Casey Mize got the win in one of those games and will make his second start of the year against the Royals on Friday. Mize has been one of the breakthrough starting pitchers of the year. The 28-year-old was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft but took a while to get to the majors and find his groove.
Some offseason adjustments have made a big difference and he is 6-1 in his eight starts with a 2.45 ERA, 3.89 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He gave up just four hits and one run in seven innings in his first outing against the Royals and had three strikeouts. He only has 7.7 K/9 but has posted at least five strikeouts in three of his last four outings.
For his most recent start, he came off the injured list and went five innings against the Guardians. He allowed just four hits and one earned run with six strikeouts on 77 pitches.
While Mize will be making his second start since an IL trip, the Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, who is making his first start off the IL. He was dealing with inflammation in his right middle finger, and he’ll return to the rotation without a minor-league rehab assignment. He could be limited as a result like Mize was in his last outing.
Lugo had mixed results in his first nine starts of the season, going 3-4 with a 3.02 ERA, 4.50 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Left-handed hitters have given Lugo trouble this season, posting a .248 batting average with seven homers and a .333 wOBA. As a result of those splits, I highlighted Colt Keith as a good DFS value play and Kerry Carpenter as one of my top home run props earlier on Friday.
Tigers vs. Royals pick, best bet
The Royals have struggled to score runs all season, and the Tigers’ pitching staff has been excellent. Mize hasn’t been piling up strikeouts but has been effective. The Royals don’t strike out a ton but have averaged only 3.3 runs per game this season, the fourth-lowest total in the majors. Rather than trying to figure out exactly how long Mize will be able to go or how many strikeouts he’ll get, I really like taking the under on the Royals team runs.
Best Bet: Royals under 3.5 team runs (+110)
The Royals scored a total of nine runs in four games against Detroit in their series earlier this season and have been held to three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 14 games. The Tigers have allowed three runs or fewer in four straight and six of their last eight.
Strong Lean: Tigers -1.5 (+140)
Lugo is a wild card after his injury layoff, but the Tigers have looked strong enough to get to him or the Royals’ bullpen after he leaves. They have been winning close, one-run games this season, but I think they’ll cover this run line and hold the Royals under their run total. If you parlay the two picks together, they come at a nice +212 SGP.
