Major League Baseball swings into the weekend with a jam-packed Friday of action. The matinee at Wrigley is joined by an Orioles game that has been adjusted into the afternoon for better weather, but the other 13 games are all under the lights on Friday night. Let’s take a look at those 26 teams on the schedule and find some juicy home run props to attack. Looking at the options and matchups on the board this Friday, my favorite three targets for home run props are Matt Olson, Kerry Carpenter and Agustin Ramirez.
Just a quick reminder before we dive in that, by their very nature, home run props are long shot bets. They are definitely not “safe” picks, but home run props are also always a fun way to flex with some MLB props. They can be a part of your strategy but shouldn’t be counted on.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for tonight’s slate.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Matt Olson to record 1+ home runs (+300)
The environment for the Braves to bring some power should be favorable on Friday night as they host the Red Sox for the start of their three-game series. They’ll face Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who has given up five home runs in his 27 1/3 innings this season.
One of those starts came against the Braves two weeks ago, and he served up three home runs in four innings, including one to Olson in the first. That home run was the fourth of Olson’s career against Giolito, against whom he is 7-for-13 in their past meetings.
Olson is still hitting .238 on the season, as he recovers from his slow start to the year, but his power has come back, and he has five home runs in his last 11 games to get to 12 long balls on the season. He has a 58.8% hard hit rate during that span with nine barrels and a 26.5% barrel rate in those 11 contests.
With the wind forecasted to be blowing out in Atlanta, he should have a good shot to stay hot in one of my top home run props of the night.
Kerry Carpenter to record 1+ home runs (+425)
The Tigers are in Kansas City for a divisional matchup against the Royals, and on Friday, they’ll face Seth Lugo (finger) coming off the injured list to make his 10th start of the season. He has given up nine homers in his nine starts this season, and seven of those have been to left-handed hitters, who have a .333 wOBA against him in 130 plate appearances.
Carpenter is a great left-handed power option in the Tigers’ lineup, and I also highlighted Colt Keith as a nice DFS value play earlier today. Carpenter has more power potential, though, which is why I have Carpenter among my home run props.
On the season, “Kerry Bonds” has crushed 10 long balls, eight of which have come against right-handed pitchers. In that split, he’s hitting .297 with a .367 wOBA, continuing his trend of smashing righties, as he has done throughout his career.
He has a 47.4% hard hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate on the season and a 56.5% hard hit rate over his last 17 games. It also helps that he hits in the leadoff spot in the order, as the extra at-bats give him more opportunities to go yard.
Getting him over +400 against a righty that struggles against left-handed power hitting makes him a good value option in Friday night’s home run props.
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Another value play I like in my home run props for Friday is Marlins’ catcher Agustin Ramirez, who has made quite the splash since the Fish called him up 31 games ago. Ramirez has already hit seven home runs in the majors with a .262 batting average, .262 ISO and .363 wOBA.
He had four hits and a home run from the leadoff spot in the Marlins’ win on Wednesday. He’s now up to 100 batted balls in his time in the majors and has a 10% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate. He has hit .311 in his 13 home games, although five of his seven homers have come on the road.
On Friday, he and the Marlins start a home series against the Giants. Lefty Kyle Harrison will get the start for San Francisco, filling in for Justin Verlander (pectoral), and may not be around for many pitches. Harrison has given up two homers in his 9 1/3 innings in the majors this season and has a 1.5 HR/9 throughout his career. Ramirez could end up with multiple at-bats against the Giants’ bullpen, and with how well he’s been hitting it, the 23-year-old rookie is a nice long shot play at +500.
