After winning on Wednesday and Thursday, the Nationals continue their road trip as they head from Seattle to Arizona for this weekend’s series against the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have dropped seven of their last eight games after losing the last two games to the Pirates in their three-game set before getting Thursday off. First pitch will take place at 9:40 p.m. ET as Merrill Kelly tries to get the Snakes back on track as he goes head-to-head with Jake Irvin.
The Diamondbacks are heavy home favorites despite their recent struggles at -225 home favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at an even nine.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Diamondbacks vs. Nationals ahead of the first outing of their three-game weekend set.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Both starting pitchers come into this game throwing the ball pretty well over their last few starts.
Irvin has won back-to-back outings to improve to 4-1 on the season with a 3.42 ERA, 4.48 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. He has a 4.93 xERA based on his opponents’ 46.0% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate, but he has been able to work out of trouble and limit damage to give up three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.
Kelly has also been posting quality starts and is 2-0 in his last three. He gave up four runs to the Cardinals in six innings in his last outing, but before that he had given up three runs or fewer in eight straight starts. In his last nine outings, he has a 2.45 ERA, 2.33 FIP and 0.84 WHIP.
Kelly has a 22.7% strikeout rate, which is significantly higher than Irvin’s 16.9%, and the Diamondbacks have been much better at strikeout suppression than the Nationals. Kelly’s better control makes him a -235 favorite to have more strikeouts than Irvin, while Irvin is -160 to have more walks.
Despite his recent success, Irvin’s one major struggle has been against left-handed hitters. Irvin has let lefties hit .247 against him with a .325 wOBA, which is much higher than righties’ .176 batting average with a .239 wOBA. Since the D-Backs are so left-hand heavy, they may be able to use that split to their advantage.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Based on Irvin’s hard-hit rate allowed and struggles against left-handed hitters, my best bet comes from that side of the splits. Even though the Diamondbacks’ offense has been struggling, there have been a few bright spots. One of their best hitters over the last few games has been Josh Naylor.
Over his last 18 games, Naylor is 21-for-72 (.292) with a .334 wOBA and 41.9% hard-hit rate. He has multiple total bases in five straight games and in 11 of his past 18 contests. He could either get a couple of hits or one double or better to go over this total. Getting it at plus-money feels like a good value
Best Bet: Josh Naylor 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Naylor’s recent form and Irvin’s splits against lefties make this a great player prop Friday night.
Strong Lean: Jake Irvin over 17.5 outs recorded (-130)
This wasn’t quite strong enough to make it into my starting pitcher prop bets, but it was definitely one I considered. Irvin has gone over this line in eight of his last nine starts and the Nationals will look for him to give as long an outing as possible after winning in extra innings on Thursday.
