Major League Baseball rolls into a full Saturday of action with seven games starting around 4:10 p.m. ET, three games just after 7:00 p.m. ET and two late games from the West Coast. With plenty of great games to watch, let’s dive in and find a few home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook that make sense. Home run props are a fun way to flex your baseball knowledge if you can hit some long-shot bets that go yard. Looking at the options and matchups on the board this Saturday, my top three targets for home run props are Gavin Sheets, Teoscar Hernandez and Logan O’Hoppe.
Yesterday, my picks went 1-1-1 since Taylor Ward smashed a home run, James Wood did not and Cody Bellinger did not start. Overall it was a winning evening since Ward was at such a nice number and Bellinger was voided.
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Saturday, May 24.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Gavin Sheets to record 1+ home runs (+600)
The Padres and Braves face off in Atlanta, and the Braves will send Grant Holmes to the hill. Holmes has been effective off-and-on throughout his 10 starts, but he has been prone to giving up home runs, whether his overall performance is solid or not. In his last five starts, he has served up eight gopher balls in 29 1/3 innings while allowing a 46.9% hard-hit rate and 13 barrels in just those five games.
Sheets comes into the matchup catching barrels on the regular over his last few games. The big lefty homered on Friday and now has four homers in his last six games while hitting .250 but with a 47.1% hard-hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate.
Getting him at +600 is a great long shot to attack in today’s home run props. He has been producing much more power recently than his teammate Fernando Tatis Jr., whose home run prop is less than half of Sheets’ at only +275.
Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+360)
Hernandez has been very effective when healthy this season, especially against lefties. I highlighted him in my top targets for the day for MLB DFS contests, and I also love him at +360 in my top home run props.
He’s hit 10 homers with a .398 wOBA in his 37 games this season and has a 42.7% hard-hit rate to go with his 11.1% barrel rate.
Half of those 10 homers have come against left-handed pitchers this season, hitting five home runs even though he has only had 31 at-bats against southpaws. In the split, he has a remarkable .659 wOBA and .581 ISO.
His matchup against lefty David Peterson on Saturday night should set up well for him, especially with the wind expected to be blowing out in New York.
Logan O’Hoppe to record 1+ home runs (+370)
O’Hoppe and the Angels were my top stack to target for MLB DFS for the day in a juicy matchup against Cal Quantrill and the Marlins. In his 41 innings this season, Quantrill has given up six home runs and four have come to right-handed hitters even though he has faced more lefties (93 plate appearances) than righties (84 plate appearances). Righties have hit .392 against him with a .454 wOBA.
O’Hoppe has already hit 14 homers in his 44 games this season, including five in his last seven games while going 11-for-28 (.393). O’Hoppe has a 73.7% hard-hit rate and 36.8% barrel rate over those seven games.
He has a higher wOBA in the splits at home and also against righties, with five of his 14 homers at home and 11 of his 14 homers against righties. O’Hoppe has three homers this season on fourseam fastballs and three against cutters, and those are two of Quantrill’s primary pitches, so it should be a good matchup to hammer O’Hoppe’s home run props.
