Tonight, the Golden State Warriors find themselves in a must-win situation, facing the prospect of a 3-1 deficit to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round of these playoffs. The playoffs suddenly seem wide-open — the Oklahoma City Thunder nearly went down 3-1 to the Denver Nuggets — and Golden State is poised to take advantage.
But the Warriors have one major issue: Stephen Curry’s hamstring strain. They’ve lost each of their last two games since the two-time MVP went down and face a difficult prospect tonight with him still on the shelf.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite (-218 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 199.5. Meanwhile, Golden State is +180 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Bettors clearly weren’t incredibly convinced by the Timberwolves’ 102-97 win in Game 4, given that they only narrowly emerged victorious from a game in which Julius Randle posted an unlikely triple-double and Brandin Podziemski made just one of his 10 shots. A 64% majority of the public is backing Minnesota, but given the overwhelming talent of the Warriors’ missing front-man, this number still reflects some doubt in the Timberwolves’ ability to put up a third straight solid performance. That doubt is doubly backed by big-money bettors, who have generally come in on the side of the home team, which has attracted a 10-percentage-point greater share of the handle than of the total bets.
The public is even more split on the spread, with just 54% of bets and 55% of the handle coming in on Minnesota to win by six points or more. Golden State covered the spread in Games 1 and 3 — in the latter case, by just half a point — and the Timberwolves took care of business comfortably in Game 2. For the season, the Warriors (46-44-3) have been slightly better against the spread than Minnesota (44-45-1) has, but overall, both teams’ performances this season have been relatively in line with bookmakers’ expectations.
Despite the parity, bettors have been overwhelmingly confident that, despite fewer than 200 total points being scored in both Games 1 and 3, the teams’ offenses will show up tonight. This confidence stems from the fact that a lot of the low-scoring performances can be linked to subpar shooting — in Game 1, the Timberwolves shot just five-for-29 from beyond the arc, and in Game 3, Anthony Edwards missed nine triples. But Minnesota’s defense has been the third-best of any team so far in these playoffs, and Golden State has a long history of being significantly worse on offense and better on defense without Curry. Games 1 and 3 both went under the point total.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Brandin Podziemski 25+ Points (+2000)
- Julius Randle 20+ Points (-145)
- Donte DiVincenzo 10+ Points (+125)
- Donte DiVincenzo 15+ Points (+400)
- Julius Randle Under 6.5 Assists (-145)
Consistent with the public’s optimism in both teams’ offenses, each of the four most popular player prop bets for tonight’s game is an alternate points line (and the sixth- and seventh-most popular are a Podziemski and a DiVincenzo alternate points bet).
When I wrote out my favorite prop bets from the contest earlier today, I did note that I was expecting Podziemski to have somewhat of a bounce-back performance after his horrific shooting accuracy in Game 3, but I was much more measured with my optimism. The second-year player has only had five 25-point performances this season, and each one of those came alongside Curry, whose gravity allows his teammates to launch easier shots. In 12 games combined without Curry between the regular season and playoffs, he’s only topped 15 points four times, as the excess offensive burden has thus far fallen more on Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga than on Podziemski.
Randle, by contrast, has had the finest postseason of his career and has scored 20 or more points in six of the eight games, including both Games 2 and 3. He’s also taken on greater responsibility as a playmaker, dishing out 11 assists in Game 2 — then his career high in a playoff game — before one-upping himself with a 24-point, 10-rebound, 12-assist triple-double in Game 3, the first of his postseason career. It’s hardly a fluke, either; he’s easily led the team in potential assists and front-court touches over the last two games, and he’s actually been rather inefficient on open or wide-open threes this series.
DiVincenzo, on the other hand, has struggled throughout the entire playoffs, topping 10 points just once and shooting 30.1% from the field and 20.8% from beyond the arc despite the fact that 43.5% of his field-goal attempts this series have been wide-open threes. It’s possible that that shooting will normalize — he’s mostly been guarded by Podziemski, a good but not great defender — but the bar is high. His playing time has decreased in each game this series — he didn’t see the court in the fourth quarter in Game 3 after recording three turnovers and four fouls in less than 16 minutes — and double-digit points is hardly a guarantee from an eighth man.
