As the chaotic second round of the NBA Playoffs continues, the only chalky series has been that between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Golden State Warriors. It’s the only series where the higher seed is winning, but even that has an asterisk, thanks to the first muscular injury of Stephen Curry’s Hall of Fame career.
Alas, the Timberwolves can only play who is in front of them, and on Monday, that will once again not include Curry. Minnesota has a good chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead tonight at 10 p.m. ET, although as is always the case in the NBA, nothing is guaranteed.
The Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-225 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 199.5. Meanwhile, the Warriors are +195 on the Moneyline.
Jonathan Kuminga U17.5 Points (-120)
Kuminga was the primary reason why Game 3 was even competitive. Golden State almost survived a one-for-10 shooting performance from Brandin Podziemski and five turnovers from Draymond Green in a game in which he fouled out in less than 30 minutes. The 22-year-old Congolese forward was fantastic, scoring an efficient 30 points and blocking a pair of shots, and his restricted free agency could be one of the stories of the summer, given that the Warriors’ precarious financial situation as a repeat tax payer. He recorded 18 or more points in 16 different games during the regular season, including four of the 10 games he played without Curry.
Kuminga is a solid player with the confidence to take over the game, but his shooting has simply been unsustainable this series. Over the last two games, a team-low 13.8% of his shot attempts have come with the nearest defender further than six feet away, but he’s been hitting contested shots regardless. He’s made seven of his 10 field-goal attempts with the nearest defender between two and four feet away after shooting just 51.2% on such tries in the regular season. Although some of his shots have been healthy — he’s taken 10 field-goal attempts within the restricted area over the last two games — he’s also tried eight floater-range shots and four middies and made half of them after going 35.7% on them in the regular season. It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes off again, but this line is just a little too high for my liking.
Rudy Gobert 2+ Blocks (+130)
Without Curry, Golden State’s spacing is questionable, given that none of Kuminga, Butler, or Green is an elite shooter. Because of that, the Warriors have to drive more, which should give Gobert more opportunities to reject shots. After attempting 43.1 three-pointers per game in the first round — the second-most of any team — Golden State has attempted just 32.3 so far this series, including just 27.5 per game in the two contests that it has played entirely without Curry. So far, the Warriors have tried 24 restricted-area shots per game this series, the third-most of any team. Gobert has been challenged at the rim at the seventh-highest frequency among second-round participants and has held Golden State to just 52.6% shooting, blocking two or more shots in two of the three games so far. His 4.6% career playoffs block percentage is the 19th-highest in NBA history.
Brandin Podziemski O1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)
Podziemski has largely struggled these playoffs, making just 31.6% of his three-pointers and 38.1% of his twos. His defense so far in the second round hasn’t been incredible, either — Donte DiVincenzo is three-for-four from the field for eight points in the 45 partial possessions that Podziemski has guarded him — but his minutes have stayed relatively consistent because the threat of his shooting is so valuable for the Warriors’ spacing. In the two games since Curry’s injury, he’s averaged 36 minutes per game; of the seven regular-season games in which he played 36 or more minutes, he made two or more triples in all but two of them.
The fact that he hasn’t made multiple three-pointers in any game this series is mostly a product of luck; his shot share of open and wide-open threes has remained constant — 46% during the regular season and 46.2% so far this series. But his efficiency has dropped somewhat; although he has hit half of his threes with the nearest defender at least six feet away, he’s zero-for-six when he has between four and six feet of breathing room. During the regular season, he made 36.2% of his open threes and 38.6% of his wide-open attempts. At some point, that shooting luck is bound to normalize, and it could well be tonight.
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