For 47 minutes on Monday, the Thunder appeared destined for a series-opening win against the Nuggets. Then, thanks to a pair of missed free throws and a miraculous Aaron Gordon three-pointer, Denver stole Game 1. Will Oklahoma City be able to respond tonight following such a deflating loss? Can Nikola Jokic lead the Nugs to a commanding 2-0 series lead?
The Thunder enter Wednesday as 10.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 229.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down which team has the edge going into this pivotal Game 2 matchup.
Nuggets vs. Thunder preview, prediction
Heading into this series, most storylines revolved around two MVP favorites. In Game 1, both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic lived up to the hype. The former dropped 33 points, ten rebounds and eight assists. Unfortunately for OKC, Denver’s face of the franchise was even better. The Joker recorded 42 points, 22 rebounds and six assists, capped off by a clutch three-pointer with a minute remaining. In a career filled with jaw-dropping stat lines, Monday’s performance was special.
Beyond the superstars, this game came down to contributions made from the ‘glue guys.’ Alex Caruso was a standout for the Thunder, chipping in with 20 points and five steals off the bench. However, the guard was the only Oklahoma City player, other than Gilgeous-Alexander, to record more than 16 points. For the Nuggets, Gordon (22 pts.) and Jamal Murray (21 pts.) were productive all evening. Russell Westbrook, a former MVP with OKC, tallied 18 points as Denver’s sixth man.
Obviously, stopping Jokic will be priority one for the Thunder. Granted, that’s easier said than done, even for one of the NBA’s elite defensive units. The tandem of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein looked helpless when guarding the center down low. That means head coach Mark Daigneault will need to make some adjustments. However, the three-time MVP will likely make a few counter-adjustments of his own. Over Jokic’s last five games vs. Oklahoma City, he’s averaged 28.0 points, 17.0 rebounds and 10.4 assists. Still, the Nuggets are susceptible to giving up buckets when the big man is on the court. Over the last four meetings between these squads, OKC has scored an average of 123.75 points per game. That’s not a shock when considering Denver has allowed the ninth-most points to opponents this season (116.2).
Nuggets vs. Thunder pick, best bet
It’s difficult to find any flaws in a 68-win Thunder team that’s breezed towards the Western Conference’s top seed. If there was one, it would be the average age of this roster (24.2 years old). This current iteration of Oklahoma City has never lost a Game 1, let alone two straight at home. In comparison, the Nuggets retain most of their 2023 championship core. No member of Denver’s rotation is a stranger to the pressure of the NBA playoffs.
Ultimately, I believe the Thunder are too talented to cough up both games at Paycom Center. Still, the Nuggets have now won three of their last four games against Oklahoma City; that’s not nothing. Expect Denver to keep things close during another intense, high-octane battle on Wednesday.
