It’s quite possible that, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is presented with his MVP award, Nikola Jokić will be on the opposing bench. Five of the seven major NBA awards have been announced, with Coach of the Year expected to be revealed tonight, and unless they hold off on announcing the most prestigious award until the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder guard will likely be coronated with the Denver Nuggets center in attendance.
It could still be Jokić — he was named a finalist for the award as well — but Gilgeous-Alexander seems like the most likely winner. The 26-year-old Canadian would certainly be deserving, given that he averaged a league-leading 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game during the regular season and leading the Thunder to an NBA-best 68 wins.
After sweeping the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, Oklahoma City starts its second round with a 9:30 p.m. ET clash against Denver, which held off the LA Clippers in seven games.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are 9.5-point favorites, with the total is set for 226. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Gilgeous-Alexander.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ Assists (+100)
While his playmaking isn’t even Gilgeous-Alexander’s best attribute, the game’s quick tempo — Denver had the league’s eighth-fastest pace during the regular season, and Oklahoma City played at its fifth-fastest — and the Nuggets’ shaky defense should give Gilgeous-Alexander plenty of opportunities to drop dimes. During the first round, Denver gave up 115.9 points per 100 possessions and 26 assists per game, both of which were the worst marks among any team to advance. I’m already high on Jalen Williams tonight, given how similar he is to the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard and how well Leonard played in the first round.
During the teams’ four regular season matchups, Christian Braun guarded him for just over 24 minutes of game time, or 122.6 partial possessions, per the NBA’s matchup data. In that span, Gilgeous-Alexander dished out nine assists, two more than he recorded against any other player (although, to be fair, the only other players to guard him for more than 100 possessions were Toumani Camara and Dillon Brooks). During the regular season, he notched seven or more assists twice against the Nuggets. In those games, he averaged 14.0 potential assists per game, tied for his sixth-most against any opponent.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -4.5 Points vs. Nikola Jokić (-115)
In honor of the MVP race, I had to include the head-to-head prop against Jokić. With all due respect to the recently-eliminated Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo, these are the two most-feared offensive players in basketball. But while either is capable of a huge scoring night at will — Gilgeous-Alexander scored 40 or more points in a game more times (13) during the regular season than he did 25 or fewer (12), and Jokić’s 61-point game on April 1 was the single best scoring performance of the season — scoring is simply more central to Gilgeous-Alexander’s game than it is to Jokić’s. Gilgeous-Alexander outscored his MVP rival by five or more points in three of the four regular-season matchups.
Ultimately, the Thunder just have more avenues to stop Jokić than Denver does to limit Gilgeous-Alexander. Of the 263 players to guard at least 200 shots within 10 feet during the regular season, Chet Holmgren held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage (43.8%), and Jokić takes 63.8% of his shots from within 10 feet of the basket. Isaiah Hartenstein, too, held players to the 42nd-lowest percentage on shorter shots. During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander went a solid 12-for-24 from the field for 30 points against Braun, and even that was limited by some below-average three-point shooting. Meanwhile, Holmgren held Jokić to just 12-for-31 shooting and blocked him thrice, tied for the most of any player.
