What happened to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday must feel more like pure relief than elation. Seven enthralling games — including two overtime games — after the playoffs opened, Denver emerged victorious with a 120-101 blowout over the LA Clippers in a game that was more lopsided than even the final score indicated.
The Nuggets’ reward? A game against the 72-14 Oklahoma City Thunder, who haven’t played since April 26 after making light work of the Memphis Grizzlies in a sweep.
Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-440 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 225.5. Meanwhile, Denver is +340 on the Moneyline.
Jalen Williams 30+ Points + Assists (+145)
The Nuggets’ defense wasn’t particularly convincing even in their first-round victory over the Clippers, as they conceded 115.9 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark of any team to advance. Denver might have the wing defenders to cover some of Oklahoma City’s auxiliary players, as Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe are predominantly standstill three-point shooters. Williams, on the other hand, is a true three-level scorer, as one of just 12 players to make at least one field goal per team game each at the rim, in the mid-range, and on above-the-break three-pointers during the regular season.
The Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard didn’t get to those benchmarks because he didn’t play enough games, but his status as one of the game’s most well-rounded scorers isn’t in question. Leonard was arguably the best player in a series containing Nikola Jokić, as he averaged 25.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game on on 59.8% effective field goal percentage and wreaking havoc on defense. Aaron Gordon, who will likely draw the primary Williams matchup as well, wasn’t much of a deterrent, as in 248 possessions, Leonard shot 20-for-39 from the field for 49 points, 14 assists, and only four turnovers. If actual Kawhi can cook the Nuggets, Baby Kawhi can too.
Russell Westbrook O1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
The first round represented quite the redemption arc for Westbrook, who performed terribly with LA in the 2024 playoffs and left his hometown unceremoniously after three relatively underwhelming seasons with the Lakers and Clippers. During the 2024-25 regular season, he redeemed himself, forming a formidable partnership with Jokić and providing critical veteran locker-room presence. And in the first round, he made two or more three-pointers in five of the six games in which he appeared, draining 41.9% of his three-point attempts — the best accuracy of any series in his career.
Replicating that performance in the second round won’t necessarily be easy for Westbrook — during the regular season, opponents made a league-low 34.2% of their deep tries against the Thunder, and in the first round, the Memphis Grizzlies hit just 30.4%. But LA focused on slowing down the other four players on the court and daring Westbrook to beat them on open jumpers, and Oklahoma City might do the same. Wide-open threes made up 22.9% of opposing teams’ shots during the regular season, the sixth-highest rate in the league, and the Thunder also gave up open threes on the fifth-highest clip. Westbrook hit wide-open triples at a 34.2% clip in the regular season, which increased to 46.4% in the first round. He also made at least two triples in two of the four games against Oklahoma City in the regular season.
Nikola Jokić 14+ Rebounds (+105)
Jokić must be glad to no longer be going against Ivica Zubac, one of just eight qualified players to finish with a higher total rebounding percentage than he did during the regular season. After Zubac limited him to just 83 points on 32-for-72 shooting — poor by Jokić’s standards, and no one else’s — and his fourth-lowest per-game rebounding average of any series in his career, he should have an easier time against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. While both are excellent defenders — in fact, among the 209 players to defend at least 200 shots at the rim in the regular season, Holmgren held opponents to the worst percentage — Jokić is simply too big.
During the regular season, the Thunder allowed the third-fewest points and fourth-fewest assists to opponents, but the 11th-most rebounds. Jokić is far too dominant of an interior force to be denied; even against the Clippers, he had a 21-board performance, and his six total games with 20 or more rebounds this season trails only the Sacramento Kings’ Domantas Sabonis, who had seven such games before being eliminated in the Play-In Tournament. Holmgren tends to play further away from the basket on offense, given the floor spacing his three-point shooting provides, so Jokić should have fewer contested rebounds. He had 18 or more boards twice in four games against Oklahoma City this season.
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