Out in the American League West, the first-place Seattle Mariners travel to Arlington, Texas for a matchup with the Rangers.
The Mariners enter with a couple of days’ rest and a four-game winning streak, and over their last 10 games, they’ve come out victorious in eight of those contests. They’re hot, but the Rangers are not. Texas sits .500 on the young season but has underachieved in comparison to expectations, and with a 1-5 record across their last six games and a 3-7 record over their last 10, this slump looks ugly.
These division rivals square off at Globe Life Field with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EST. Here’s a Rangers vs. Mariners prediction and pick for game one of this three-game series.
Rangers vs. Mariners prediction, pick
The Mariners may rank 21st in hits so far this season, but the team hasn’t seen any shortage of scoring. They’re tied for eighth in RBI, mostly thanks to their power-hitting tendencies. With 45 home runs thus far, they’re just one dinger shy of third place among all teams. Catcher Cal Raleigh is raking with a team-high 10 homers, while DH Jorge Polanco’s red-hot .384 average is complemented by nine home runs of his own. The scary part is that Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena aren’t even playing well — they’re batting .207 and .208, respectively.
The Rangers sit on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. The team’s batting average of .229 ranks 24th league-wide, and with a paltry 103 runs, only the Colorado Rockies score less than Texas does. Marcus Semien is slumping hard, offseason acquisition Jake Burger is doing a stint in the minor leagues, and Joc Pederson couldn’t hit the ball if his life depended on it to start his own stint in Texas. The only reason the Rangers aren’t at the bottom of the standings is because of a currently-superb pitching staff. The team falls sixth in ERA (3.26), fourth in WHIP (1.14), and seventh in opponent batting average (.227).
Jack Leiter is playing fantastic ball through three starts thus far with a 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 13.1 innings. Even with a hot pitcher on the mound, the Rangers are likely outmatched in this one. Seattle may not score early, but once the relievers enter the game, the fireworks should begin. They’re hitting the ball at a slightly better rate than Texas, but the Mariners’ scoring prowess makes all the difference.
Rangers vs. Mariners pick, best bet
The Mariners enter this game as -125 odds on the Moneyline in this one and they’re +136 to cover the -1.5 run line. Given their recent form, it makes sense that they’re favored to win this one. The Rangers, meanwhile, come in at +105 to win and -162 to cover at +1.5 on the run line.
Some of the player props for tonight hold appeal, such as 2+ total bases for Raleigh and Wyatt Langford at plus-odds for each. Another one with intrigue is 1+ RBIs for Polanco, especially at +165 odds.
Really, though, the top pick for tonight is actually one of the game lines. With the Mariners’ offense so hot and the Rangers’ offense so… not, taking Seattle at +136 on the -1.5 run lines makes too much sense. When one team is a top scorer and the other is in the bottom-two teams, there’s not a better value on the docket.
Best bet: Mariners -1.5 (+136)
