Luzardo is pitching like a top-tier ace, and the Phillies’ offense should be more than enough to support him against an Arizona team that’s been inconsistent on the road, particularly against lefties. With all signs pointing towards a solid home bounce-back for Philadelphia, the Diamondbacks’ pesky offense is going to have to absolutely viper-strike. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Phillies and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo is quickly cementing himself as one of the best arms in the National League. With a scorching 1.73 ERA and 41 strikeouts in just 36.1 innings, he’s been the perfect anchor for a Phillies staff that continues to perform despite some inconsistencies. Luzardo’s command has been pristine, and his ability to limit hard contact—especially in high-leverage situations—has been a game-changer for Philadelphia. His opponent tonight, Merrill Kelly, has had his moments, but they’ve been far more fleeting. Kelly’s 4.41 ERA is serviceable, but he’s prone to stretches of vulnerability, particularly on the road. In fact, his 6.46 ERA away from Chase Field is a red flag, especially against a Phillies lineup that can sting.
The Phillies are coming off a tough home loss to the Nationals, but their resilience is well-documented. Philadelphia has responded well after such losses, boasting a 12-0 record in their last 12 home games against National League teams following a home loss. When the Phillies come out firing, they do so with precision—especially against right-handed pitchers like Kelly. Their patience at the plate, backed by a solid .336 OBP, will be the key to taking advantage of Kelly’s mistakes, which, given his elevated 1.10 WHIP, could come in the form of walks and hard-hit balls.
On the flip side, Arizona has been getting by on the back of a high-octane offense, ranked fourth in MLB in OPS. However, they’ve struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, sitting 18th in team OPS against southpaws at a mere .646. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte can certainly create some damage, but the Phillies have a dominant bullpen that has been lights out after Luzardo departs. With a collective 3.91 ERA, the Phillies’ relief corps is perfectly equipped to lock things down late. The Diamondbacks’ ability to generate offense late in games is no doubt a strength, but with Luzardo’s control and the Phillies’ ability to close out games, it’s hard to see Arizona making enough noise.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies pick, best bet
The Fightin’ Phils have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games following a home loss. Arizona, on the other hand, has failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against National League East teams. The Phillies are in a prime spot to come out strong early, especially with Luzardo on the mound, and their offense should have enough firepower to make this a comfortable win.
As for the total, the Phillies have hit the over in 10 of their last 11 home games, and Arizona’s offense has been productive in recent matchups, particularly when they’ve faced lefties. However, Luzardo’s dominance, combined with Arizona’s struggles against southpaws, suggests we may see a lower-scoring affair tonight. Despite the recent over trend for both teams, the presence of two strong pitchers with excellent control—particularly Luzardo—makes the under look like a sharp lean.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (+136) vs. Diamondbacks
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Total lean: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks u9.5 runs (-120)
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