Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action on Friday, with 12 of the 15 games on the main DFS fantasy baseball slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. With 24 scheduled starting pitchers, there is no shortage of selections to consider for your roster this Friday night. Let’s sorth through the options and pinpoint the top option in my MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for this Friday night.
Before we get into the rankings, a quick note about what to expect. I’ve selected my top five MLB DFS pitcher picks from the slate and tried to hit a variety of price points. Depending on what the rest of your roster looks like and how much risk you can tolerate, you should select the options that best fit your roster build. Based on lineup constructions, ownership projections and value expectations, these are the top five that I’m targeting for my lineups. You can choose your own adventure and combine whichever of these top five you think makes the most sense for Friday night.
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1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers ($10,500)
Skubal is coming off one of his best starts of the season and is in one of the best matchups on the board as he faces the Angels in Anaheim. Skubal had a season-high 11 strikeouts against the Orioles in six shutout innings last Sunday to earn 36.5 fantasy points.
Skubal improved to 3-2 on the year with that win and has a 2.34 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 10.4 K/9. He has at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts and at least 27 fantasy points in three of those five outings as well. Since he started on Opening Day and struggled against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, he has been very good on the road and dominated the Brewers for 35.4 fantasy points in his most recent road outing.
On Friday, he’ll face the Angels, who have been scuffling badly on offense and also just lost Mike Trout to the IL. The Angels lead the MLB in K% over the last two weeks with a 29.3% K% and 9.9 strikeouts per game. He should be set up for a big night of strikeouts and a good shot at a win in a what could be a low-scoring pitchers’ duel with Jose Soriano ($6,900).
2. Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants ($8,600)
The only pitching matchup that might be better than Skubal vs. the Angels is Ray vs. the Rockies. Colorado has been a great matchup for starting pitchers whenever they’re not playing at Coors Field. The Rockies lead the MLB with a 28.1% K% on the season and have a MLB-worst 64 team wRC+. Since 100 wRC+ is league average, that number indicates the Rockies are 36% below league average as a team in run creation. On the road, they are averaging 2.25 runs per game and are just 2-14 even after winning the series opener on Thursday in San Francisco.
Ray is 3-0 with a 3.73 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 9.5 K/9 in his six games this season. He struggled with his control for a few outings earlier this season, but seemed to find his groove his last time out against the Rangers. He worked seven strong innings and gave up just two runs on five hits with eight strikeouts. Even in a no-decision, he had a season-high 24.2 fantasy points in that outing.
Against the Rockies, he should be able to pile up strikeouts. He has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts, and that upside gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling on Friday.
3. Clay Holmes, New York Mets ($8,100)
There are two Holmes on the hill this Friday, but I only included Clay Holmes in my rankings for Friday since Grant Holmes is facing the Dodgers. Clay Holmes has a better matchup on the road against the Cardinals.
Holmes’ first season as a starter has gone well so far, as the 32-year-old righty has gone 3-1 in six outings with a 2.64 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and 10.6 K/9. He won three of his last four starts and allowed zero or one run in each of his last three outings, including one against the Cardinals.
He only had two strikeouts in his last start against the Nationals, but still earned 16.9 fantasy points in five shutout innings. He was more productive with 19.9 fantasy points against the Cardinals in his previous outing, giving up one run on four hits with six strikeouts in six innings in a no-decision.
Holmes is a very solid mid-range target for your MLB DFS lineups and brings good strikeout potential even though his matchup isn’t quite as soft as Skubal’s and Ray’s.
4. Max Fried, New York Yankees ($9,500)
While the Mets are on the road, Fried and the Yankees are at home on the other side of the Big Apple, welcoming in the Rays for an AL East matchup. Fried gets the ball in Game 1 of the series and will look to continue his strong first season in the Bronx.
Fried has lived up to his big free agent deal, going 5-0 in his first six starts with two earned runs or fewer in every outing. He has a 1.19 ERA, 2.95 FIP and 7.9 K/9 in his six outings while averaging 22.2 fantasy points per start.
Two starts ago, Fried faced Ryan Pepiot ($7,800) and the Rays in Tampa. He went 7 2/3 innings and earned the win and 22.3 fantasy points with just two hits and two strikeouts. While his strikeout ceiling isn’t quite as high as the options higher on this list, he has done a great job limiting damage and getting wins for the Yankees this season.
5. Gunnar Hoglund, Athletics ($4,000)
Let’s swing for the fences with the fifth option in my MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Friday. I highlighted Hoglund in my top bargain picks for the day, but I’m ready to go Hoglund-wild and toss him in here as well.
Hoglund gets a great matchup for his MLB debut in Miami against the Marlins. The 25-year-old righty started the season ranked as the team’s No. 3 prospect by FanGraphs and the No. 89 prospect in all of baseball
In his six starts for the Las Vegas Aviators, Hoglund put together a solid 2.43 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. In his last two starts, he didn’t give up a run in nine innings while piling up 10 strikeouts.
Since he’s only $4,000, Hoglund doesn’t have to do much to bring exceptional value on a per-dollar basis. He will be a high-risk play since it’s his MLB debut, but the upside makes him worth a look, especially since you’ll have plenty of salary left to stack your lineups with big bats.
