I already wrote about how I like the Cubs to win this game outright in my MLB Best Bets column for today on DKN. Having said that, I break the game down in much more detail below, especially the pitching matchup between Boyd and Mlodzinksi. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Pirates and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview
The Cubs roll into Pittsburgh riding a potent offense that ranks third in the majors with a .260 team batting average, 38 home runs, and 181 total runs. The high-powered lineup led by Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki has been especially dynamic against right-handed pitching. They have a solid advantage tonight against Carmen Mlodzinski, who has posted a 6.95 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP over his first five starts this season. With Mlodzinski struggling to limit hard contact and walk rates ballooning, the Cubs’ well-balanced offense should have no problem exploiting this mismatch.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has arrived as a legitimate offensive threat, batting .284 with six home runs, 10 doubles, and an impressive .543 slugging percentage. His combination of power and speed has made him a consistent producer, both in the batter’s box and on the basepaths. Chicago’s lefty Matthew Boyd (2.54 ERA) will take the mound for the Cubs, bringing a consistency to the pitching staff that Pittsburgh simply cannot match. Boyd’s ability to navigate high-leverage innings and keep hitters off-balance has made him a reliable piece of the rotation. The Pirates, who rank 25th in the league for runs per game, will struggle to produce against Boyd’s solid command and the Cubs’ dependable bullpen, which ranks in the top half of the league in ERA.
Though Boyd’s ERA is stellar, our real focus here is the offensive gap. Pittsburgh’s offense has limped along this season, averaging just 3.40 runs per game and ranking 27th in home runs. Their underwhelming lineup, aside from Oneil Cruz, has failed to generate consistent pressure against opposing pitching. The Pirates’ collective .224 batting average and .338 slugging percentage are glaring weaknesses in a game where Chicago’s bats have been firing on all cylinders.
Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Michael Busch has been quietly stellar, posting a .906 OPS this season as a key contributor in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games at PNC Park, a dominant run against subpar teams like the Pirates, and they’ve consistently covered the run line in these situations. The Pirates have struggled to cover the spread, failing to do so in five of their last six home games and have been ineffective as underdogs. Given the Cubs’ superior lineup, pitching advantage, and strong road form, this is a game they should win comfortably.
Best bet: Cubs -1.5 (-105) at Pirates
Boyd continues his strong career run against Pittsburgh—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
