We love an evening slate of Wednesday baseball with tightly-contested Moneylines, juicy run lines, and plenty of letdown/bounceback spots. Between games like the Yankees vs. Orioles, Cubs vs. Pirates, Mets vs. Diamondbacks, and Red Sox vs. Jays, we’ve got a full bill of high-voltage games. Having said that, below are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Chicago Cubs (-150) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
A Cubs home ML against a fifth-/sixth-in-the-rotation starter with juice under -200? Feels a little too good to be true, but perhaps the market is accounting for the troubling uptick in hard contact against Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. In each of his last three starts, he’s allowed five, six, and 10 hits, respectively. As a team, however, the Pirates only have a .603 OPS against left-handed pitchers. And, to the point of the hits: Pittsburgh’s batted only .220 collectively against southpaws.
Boyd’s been prone to the longball in his career, but the Pirates only aggregate seven total home runs against lefties this year; two belong to Bryan Reynolds, and one to O’Neil Cruz. These are your threats tonight against this sketchily-juiced ML. They’re also the X-factors in why I’m not entirely comfortable taking -1.5 run line for Chicago.
I don’t think there’s any damage Boyd can allow that this Cubs lineup can’t overcome. We’re not worried about a number, here. We’re just worried about an outright win. And the Cubs have been winning with their bats. So we’ll bet on their bats against Pirates’ starter Carmen Mlodzinski and his very-much-statistically-supported 1.82 WHIP.
Washington Nationals +1.5 (-115) at Philadelphia Phillies
Christopher Sanchez is rounding into true ace form, which is why this Nationals +1.5 run line is priced at just about even money. That and, perhaps, you know, the looming shadow of the 19-5 loss to the Mets earlier this week. It’s been a tough go for the Nats here—one of my favorite sleeper teams (still) to enter the year—through the first month of the campaign.
But their team OPS over the last seven days is .722, among the best in the MLB. Pretty typically, five runs against a New York Mets team is enough to keep the game close. Can’t really help the ones that get so out of hand the final score looks like a lopsided Kan Jam game.
The Phillies lineup is scary—scarier still at home. But Jake Irvin has been fantastic over his last three starts—one against Pittsburgh, one at Colorado, and his most recent against the Mets. During that stretch, he’s surrendered just three runs on 11 hits across 20.2 innings.
A James Wood bomb keeps this thing in reach, so long as the Phillies lineup doesn’t go candy-stripe bombers tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-112) at New York Mets
Bullpen game for the Mets; Burnes night for the Snakes. Maybe I’m buying too much into the letdown spot for the Mets, who are coming off some siege warfare against the Nats to the tune of almost 20 runs. It’s ballooned their seven-day metrics such that their team OPS over the last week is a staggering .847. Everybody’s hitting right now at the Apple, and no one’s more pleased to be doing so than Mark Vientos.
The Diamondbacks, however, have been hitting all season. Their team .772 OPS through the first month of the season nearly paces the league, and their top-three hitters (Carroll, Smith, and Suarez) all perform markedly better in night games than day games. Which means we’re on the plus side of that .772 OPS, in aggregate.
This whole bet could go belly-up if Burnes allows anywhere from two-to-four walks to the Mets lineup. They’re as strikeout-happy as they are patient, and they’re seeing the ball great right now.
Give me the Diamondbacks, however, to spoil the fun in New York for a night. Let’s hope Alonso doesn’t take Burnes deep. Or Soto. Or Nimmo. Or Vientos. The Mets sure do have a great lineup. Golly.
But it can go cold, and it’s always shimmering-hot in the desert. Go Diamondbacks.
