I already wrote about how I like the Diamondbacks to cover this game tonight in my MLB Best Bets column for today on DKN. I’ve got a different lean, however, with some different analysis for bettors interested in a more longform approach. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Mets and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Mets’ offense has been sizzling recently, and there’s no reason to believe it’ll cool off tonight, making the Over the clear play. New York’s bats have been absolutely relentless, scoring 34 runs in their last three games. Even with the challenge of facing Corbin Burnes, who’s been solid but not the Cy Young contender of years past, the Mets have the tools to take advantage of his struggles. Burnes has posted a 4.05 ERA and walked 4.1 batters per nine innings this season, both below his usual standards. His control has been an issue, and given the Mets’ lineup, it’s hard to see them not putting up runs, especially when you consider the way Pete Alonso (.346, seven HR) and Francisco Lindor (.302, six HR) have been heating up.
Alonso has been on fire, batting .375 over his last five games, while Lindor just launched a home run last night to continue his blistering run, hitting .344 since April 4th. These two, combined with Juan Soto’s imminent breakout, will challenge Burnes early and often.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been an offensive juggernaut, ranking third in the majors with 5.28 runs per game. Their power surge, with 40 home runs on the season, places them in elite company, and they will be looking to break out against a Mets bullpen and an opener in Huascar Brazoban that lacks the stability of a traditional starter. Brazoban has yet to pitch more than two innings in a game this season, and New York will rely on Brandon Waddell for the bulk of the innings.
Waddell’s MLB history is limited, with a modest 5.68 ERA in 12.2 career innings, which makes him a vulnerable option against a deep, potent lineup. Even with the lack of consistency on the mound for the Mets, Arizona’s offensive power—led by Corbin Carroll (three HR, 23 RBIs) and Geraldo Perdomo (.260, five HR)—is always a threat. Carroll, in particular, has been one of the hottest hitters in the league, ranking 13th in RBIs and a major factor in Arizona’s explosive offense.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen, too, has been unreliable, especially after their performance last night, where they gave up eight runs. With a 4.52 ERA, they rank near the bottom of MLB pitching staff rankings. Their bullpen, having allowed 35 homers and 146 runs so far, is likely to get taxed once again in a high-scoring affair. And Burnes, despite being an ace in the past, has a career-high WHIP of 1.35 so far this season. This makes him vulnerable to Mets’ hitters like Alonso and Lindor, who are capable of putting the ball over the fence at any moment.
Betting trends back up the expectation of a high-scoring game. The Mets have gone over the total in five of their last 10 games, and their lineup has been so potent lately that it’s hard to imagine Burnes or the Arizona bullpen keeping them in check. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have hit the over in eight of their last 10 games with a set total, and with a bullpen that has allowed 5.03 runs per game, they’re bound to contribute to the scoring. Arizona has been vulnerable to high-scoring games, evidenced by their last series against the Mets, where six of the last eght games between the two at Citi Field have gone over the total.
Best bet: Mets vs. Diamondbacks o8.5 runs (-105)
Bombs away in New York City tonight—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
