MLB Prop Bets for Friday comes to us on a loaded slate, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. Tonight has a couple of games with weather concerns to watch, particularly in Cleveland and Detroit. Aside from that, Washington and Colorado have a small chance of a delay, but nothing major.
If you want to tail any of these picks, click on the header to be taken directly to the betting page on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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MLB Prop Bets for Friday, April 25, 2025
Seattle Mariners over 4.5 runs -115
When I saw Cal Quantrill was pitching tonight, I knew I was going to take the over on the Mariners’ team total. He’s been abysmal through 17.1 innings, sporting an 8.31 ERA with an xERA of 7.02 and a 5.33 FIP. His command has been awful, as he’s walked nine batters for a 4.67 BB/9. Quantrill has thrown six different pitches this season, and all of them have an xBA of at least .300 against them. That’s insane.
The Mariners’ offense has been coming alive lately, averaging 6.1 runs over the past week. They’ve scored at least eight runs in four of their last seven games. Ideally, for the Marlins, they would want Quantrill to pitch deep into this game because the bullpen has been used heavily lately. Over the past week, the Marlins’ bullpen has logged the second-most innings in the league with 25.2. Unfortunately, Quantrill hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in any of his four starts. I think this sets up the Mariners for a great offensive night ahead.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the games, totals, and run lines!
New York Yankees over 4.5 runs -115
Another team whose team total I like to go over is the Yankees against Jose Berríos and the Blue Jays. This is a bad matchup for Berríos against a Yankees team that crushes sinkers. Dating back to last season, tonight’s expected lineup for the Yankees has a combined .375 wOBA and a .202 ISO against that pitch. The top of the lineup in particular, with Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt, poses a particularly tough matchup for Berríos. Like the Marlins, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has also been stretched thin over the past week, logging 24.1 innings, which is the fifth-most innings over that span.
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
Seth Lugo throws a bevy of pitches, and last year, they fooled many across the league. This season, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. His 3.90 ERA is accompanied by an xERA of 4.45 and a 5.42 FIP. Opposing hitters are making a lot of hard contact with a 37.5% hard-hit rate allowed. That’s not good for a pitcher who has low strikeouts and induces contact for outs. Lefties have been hitting for power against Lugo, as they’ve already tagged him for five of the six home runs he’s allowed. For reference, Lugo gave up seven home runs to lefties over the entire season. With hitters surrounding him in the lineup who should also hit Lugo well, I think this presents a solid opportunity for Alvarez to go over his 1.5 H/R/RBI total.
Double Play Parlay: Twins/Mariners over 0.5 double plays turned +278
Double Play Parlay record: 2-3 +0.6 units
A couple of duds the last two times we’ve rolled the Double Play Parlay out. Tonight, we’re rolling with the Twins and Mariners to both turn a double play at +278. Here’s what I’m thinking for tonight.
The Twins will be starting Pablo López, who has seen a drop in his strikeout numbers but an increase in ground balls. Currently, the 52.3% ground ball rate he’s induced is a career-high. Against righties, tonight’s expected Angels lineup has a 43% ground ball rate, including three hitters with over 50%.
The Mariners turning a double play caught my eye because it’s at plus money. I don’t recall seeing a team turning a double play at +110, so I was a bit perplexed. Logan Gilbert has a 50% ground ball rate on the season, which is also a new career-high. He’s a big strikeout pitcher with a 13.5 K/9 on the year, so that does bring some concern. However, the Marlins have a 42.7% ground ball rate against righties, which ranks them 12th in the league. This makes it a favorable spot. Grabbing this at +110 gives us some nice value, in my opinion.
Steve Buchanan MLB Parlay
Every Monday and Friday, I post a parlay I like on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can see what I came up with below and add it directly to your bet slip if you want to tail along.
For analysis on why I like these legs, check out my MLB Parlay: Steve Buchanan’s Parlay on DraftKings article on DraftKings Network.
Good luck with these MLB picks for tonight!
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