Monday’s MLB Prop Bets article will cover the short slate of games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of my MLB Picks tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you want to be directed to the bet page, you can click on any of the headlines in this article.
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MLB Prop Bets for Monday, April 21, 2025
Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases -105
We’re getting close to even money on a bet that has gone over in 59% of Judge’s games so far. Tonight, he’ll face Guardians starter Gavin Williams, primarily a fastball pitcher. Williams throws his fastball nearly 55% of the time, a pitch Judge naturally handles well. Since last season, Judge has a .517 wOBA and .385 ISO against four-seamers. Williams has struggled against righties so far, allowing a .352 wOBA and 5.21 FIP. With winds blowing out tonight, I expect Judge to exceed his 1.5 total bases prop against Williams.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the games, totals, and run lines!
San Diego Padres over 3.5 runs -120
I was surprised to see 3.5 runs for the Padres tonight against Keider Montero. He made his season debut last week against the Brewers, tossing five innings and allowing five runs on eight hits with eight strikeouts. While the strikeout numbers were impressive, he was hit hard otherwise. His arsenal consists mainly of three pitches: a slider, a four-seam, and a sinker. Together, they accounted for 87% of his pitches in his first start. The Padres struggle against the slider but hit both the four-seam and sinker well. Based on what we saw last year, Montero is not someone who will overpower hitters and strike out eight batters consistently. He induces contact to generate outs, and that’s where the Padres should find success.
Want to see who is pitching today? Check out our Starting Pitchers article to see today’s matchups.
New York Mets Team Total Bases over 11.5 -125
Aaron Nola has been a mess. Through 21.1 innings, he owns a 6.65 ERA, 4.00 xERA, and 4.51 FIP. Opposing hitters are making loud contact with a 9.2% barrel rate and 38.5% hard-hit rate. Lefties have been the biggest culprits, hitting three home runs off him with a .410 wOBA. With that in mind, it will be a tough matchup against the Mets, who will have four of their first five hitters batting left-handed.
Behind Nola, the Phillies’ bullpen has been a disaster recently. Over the past week, they’ve thrown 23.1 innings with an 8.87 ERA and 5.48 FIP. I believe this is a great spot for the Mets’ offense, making the over on 11.5 total bases a strong bet for this matchup.
Double Play Parlay: Braves/Astros over 0.5 double plays turned +180
The Double Play Parlay is a market I’ve been dabbling in lately. This market involves a team turning a double play. Tonight, I’m selecting the Braves and Astros. The Astros’ -200 line is heavily favored because of their starter, Hunter Brown. He’s inducing ground balls at a 58% rate, increasing the likelihood of a double play.
The Braves are the riskier pick against the Cardinals. They’ve turned fewer double plays, but starter Spencer Schwellenbach is inducing ground balls at a 55% rate. Selecting them at -115 completes the second leg of this parlay.
To tail this play, go to the individual game, go to “Team Totals,” and scroll down until you find “Double Plays.” Then, add to your bet slip!
Good luck with these MLB picks for tonight!
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets! @SBuchanan24
