After today’s results, two teams in the Champions League’s final four have been set, and there were no surprises. PSG barely held on against a hungry Aston Villa side playing at home in Birmingham. Ultimately, the French champions came up with a 5-4 aggregate victory, but all credit to the Villans for fighting. Barcelona, too, faced some travails, as Dortmund’s main man — Serhou Guirassy — netted his third hat trick of the season, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Blaugrana from advancing, 5-3, on aggregate.
Tomorrow, Arsenal will look to hold off Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu, while Inter will host Bayern Munich in what appears to be the only competitive tie remaining.
Bayern Munich at Internazionale, April 16, 3 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Inter Milan +165, Draw +245, Bayern Munchen +160
To Advance: Inter Milan -300, Bayern Munchen +230
Preview: In my Best Bets column for this week’s Champions League games, I predicted a 1-1 draw, and that’s what I’m going to be sticking with. Bayern’s main man, Harry Kane, is simply too good not to score at least one goal across two legs, and by putting only two of his six shots on target in the first leg, he’s due for a more accurate shooting performance. Yan Sommer is excellent between the sticks and has a competition-best 93.9% save percentage so far, but Bayern still has enough attacking talent — even without Jamal Musiala, who’s out with a hamstring injury — that I’d be surprised if it didn’t find the back of the net at some point.
But I’d also be surprised if the Nerrazzuri don’t score at some point, given that 21-year-old Jonas Urbig — who recorded just two saves from four shots on target in the first leg — is still in front of goal as Manuel Neuer continues to recover from the injury he suffered during the Round of 16 last month. Urbig’s 56.0% save percentage in the Bundesliga ranks in the first percentile among goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues, and even though Inter may not have quite as strong an attack as the Bavarians, scoring 17 goals to Bayern’s 29, its front line is good enough to get it done against such a vulnerable shot-stopper. Lautaro Martínez has netted in each of his past four UCL games, and Marcus Thuram has had the most clinical finishing season of his career. One of the two — or captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu, who always seems to come up clutch in big moments — will sneak one past Urbig.
Inter will then be a single two-legged tie away from its second UCL final in three seasons, but that’s likely where its journey will end against Barcelona, which has been a buzzsaw in all competitions behind its elite front three of Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, and Robert Lewandowski. That’s a bridge the Nerrazzurri will cross later this month.
Prediction: Internazionale 1, Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal at Real Madrid, April 16, 3 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Real Madrid -130, Draw +310, Arsenal +330
To Advance: Arsenal -800, Real Madrid +300
Preview: Declan Rice had never scored from a direct free kick before nailing two beauties in a shocking, cataclysmic first leg at the Emirates. The 3-0 result marks a deficit that not even Real Madrid, for all of its Champions League brilliance, has never come back from. Four clubs have overcome a deficit as big or bigger, so it’s never out of the question, but there’s a reason why Opta gives the Galacticos just an 8% chance of advancing to the semifinals. With an in-form Rice, a healthy Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard, and one of the best goalkeepers in the competition — David Raya — Arsenal should have no problem reaching its first UCL semifinal since 2008-09.
The first leg wasn’t quite as dominant as the scoreline made it seem, as the Gunners produced just 1.5 expected goals with their chances to Madrid’s 0.5, but a 3-0 scoreline is a 3-0 scoreline. The Galacticos won’t make it easy — an attack featuring Vinicius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, and Federico Valverde never will — and they’re likely to win at a venue where they’ve emerged victorious in 19 of their 24 matches. After playing in a standard 4-3-3 during the first leg, Arsenal might play more conservatively and avoid being beaten on the counterattack, being willing to concede a goal or two without giving away the match.
With the aggregate win, the Gunners will set up a very intriguing semifinal matchup against PSG, the other team remaining in the competition that has not won a Champions League title before. It’ll be an interesting match between one of the competition’s best attacks against one of its best defenses.
Prediction: Real Madrid 1, Arsenal 0
