The first legs of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals were played last week, and across tomorrow and Wednesday, the four semifinal participants will be determined. As football’s domestic competitions wind to a close, so, too, is the Champions League.
Three of the four teams who will play in the semifinals look to have already been determined, as Barcelona (4-0), Arsenal (3-0), and Paris Saint-Germain (3-1) all have commanding leads in their respective ties. But at the highest levels of European football, anything can happen.
I already broke down both fixtures on tomorrow’s schedule earlier, but for this column, I’m focusing on the betting angle. DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL. In this article, I’m going to run you through my favorites over the next two days, with one from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
Paris Saint-Germain at Aston Villa, 3 p.m. ET, April 15 (Paris Saint-Germain leads 3-1 on aggregate)
FC Barcelona at Borussia Dortmund, 3 p.m. ET, April 15 (FC Barcelona leads 4-0 on aggregate)
Bayern Munich at Internazionale, 3 p.m. ET, April 16 (Internazionale leads 2-1 on aggregate)
Arsenal at Real Madrid, 3 p.m. ET, April 16 (Arsenal leads 3-0 on aggregate)
Emiliano Martinez 4+ Saves (+110)
Quite simply, the primary reason why Villa is in this tie at all headed into the second leg is Martínez. The French champions were clinical in the first leg, possessing the ball for 75% of the game and completing 74 passes into the attacking third, and they launched 29 shots, 10 of which found the target. The only reason why this wasn’t a more lopsided scoreline: Martínez made seven saves, tying his season high — which, coincidentally, came in the Champions League league phase in a 1-0 win over Bayern Munich.
Realistically, PSG, protecting a two-goal lead, isn’t going to be as attack-oriented as they were in the first leg, as their path to a Champions League semifinal is simple: possess the ball and don’t get beaten on the counterattack. But they’re unlikely to require 29 shots to force Martínez to make four saves; they got just 34.5% of their total shots on target in the first leg, their 13th-worst accuracy of the season and 5.7 percentage points worse than their season-long mark. Plus, in UCL competition this season, Martínez has posted a stellar 83.0% save percentage, the third-highest mark among goalkeepers still in the competition. As long as PSG attempts 12 total shots — a number that they have reached in all but five of their matches this season — Martínez should be statistically likely to reach the four-save mark.
Lamine Yamal Anytime Goalscorer (+380)
Staked to a 4-0 lead — a margin that only Barcelona themselves have ever come back from in Champions League competition — Hansi Flick might look to rotate his squad in Tuesday’s match, especially with critical matches coming up in the Blaugrana’s title fight. Alejandro Balde is injured and is certain to be one of the replacements, while Iñigo Martínez also looks likely to sit, given that he’ll be suspended for the first leg of the semifinal if he picks up another yellow card. Of Barça’s elite front three, Robert Lewandowski seems the most likely to get the day off, given that he’s 36 years old.
17-year-old Yamal is unlikely to sit, though, as he’s started in 50 of the 52 matches for which he’s been available, and he’s played at least 80 minutes in 37 matches this season. The wunderkind has a knack for scoring in important moments, including the equalizer in the semifinals of the Euros — which Spain went on to win — as well as in both the semifinals and finals of the Supercopa de España, which Barça lifted in an epic 5-2 domination of Real Madrid. He’s also found the back of the net in four separate Champions League matches this season, netting the final goal of the first leg.
If Lewandowski ultimately sits, it’ll likely be Ferrán Torres up front in his place, and while the 25-year-old is very solid — posting 12 goal contributions in 24 matches — he’s no Lewandowski. Torres also isn’t quite as good at heading than Lewandowski, so Yamal might opt to shoot instead of crossing it in from the right, as he typically does. Yamal has attempted four or more shots in eight of his last 10 games with club and country, his most prolific shooting stretch of the season, and he’s found the back of the net four times across that span.
Inter Milan-Bayern Munich Tie and O1.5 (+310)
Of the four second-leg quarterfinal matches, this is the one with the most intrigue. Bayern actually outplayed Inter by expected goals in the first leg, producing chances worth 2.3 expected goals to the Nerrazzuri’s 0.8, and there was plenty of late back-and-forth drama. Lautaro Martínez put the Italian leaders up in the 35th minute before club legend Thomas Müller equalized in the 85th minute for the Bavarians. But it was Davide Frattesi who delivered the knockout blow in the 88th minute to send the tie back to Milan with the hosts squarely in the driver’s seat.
Bayern was hoping that its first-choice goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, would be fit to return during the second leg, after 21-year-old Jonas Urbig recorded just two saves during the match in Germany. But Neuer won’t be ready to return, and his absence underscores the Bavarians’ deeper injury concerns; Jamal Musiala, probably Bayern’s second-best player, will miss the contest as well. Raphaël Guerreiro was relatively quiet as his replacement.
Bayern has too much attacking talent to be shut out completely; striker Harry Kane generated six shots — two on target — worth 1.0 expected goals during the first leg, so he was rather unlucky not to find the back of the net. Kane ranks third in the competition in goals and second in shots on target, having netted in six of his 12 Champions League matches so far, and while Inter’s Yann Sommer ranks first in the competition in save percentage and clean sheets, there’s no shame in conceding to an attack as good as Bayern’s. But the Nerrazzuri’s attack, led by the lethal strike partnership of Martínez and Marcus Thuram, is good enough for a 1-1 result to advance, 3-2, on aggregate.
Real Madrid Moneyline (-140)
Arsenal blowing out the greatest team in the history of the Champions League to effectively send the Galacticos home was inarguably the most surprising result of last week’s first legs. 3-0 is a nearly impossible deficit to come back from, and it’s almost a given that the Gunners will advance and set up a likely semifinal against PSG, ensuring that one of the teams in the final will be searching for its first Champions League trophy. That doesn’t mean Arsenal can celebrate its win just yet — it still has 90 minutes to play, and especially at the Santiago Bernabeu, Real Madrid won’t make this easy.
Let’s not act like this Galacticos front three isn’t likely the second-strongest in the UCL; Kylian Mbappé and Vinicius Júnior are tied for sixth in the competition with seven goals each and Rodrygo has five. Mbappé, in fact, is second in total shot attempts and first in shots on target, and while he’s likely to be suspended in La Liga for his dangerous challenge that got him sent of against Deportivo Álaves, the Champions League falls under a different jurisdiction. Mbappé may be hungry for redemption after being sent off for the first time in a Madrid shirt, and the Gunners will be okay with him scoring — and with Real Madrid winning the tie — as long as they don’t give up three goals. Expect Arsenal to play very defensively, even with star center back Gabriel sidelined, and not taking many chances in attack.
