After last week’s results, the UEFA Champions League will turn to the quarterfinals’ return legs, with Arsenal, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain and Internazionale all closing in and booking their spot in the last four. Of the four, only Inter doesn’t have a multi-goal edge, but who knows — surprising comebacks have happened in the Champions League before.
Dortmund will host Barcelona in need of a prayer, while Aston Villa has semi-realistic hopes of turning around its two-goal deficit against PSG at home.
In this preview, I’ll break down each game.
FC Barcelona at Borussia Dortmund, April 15, 3 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Barcelona -115, Draw +320, Dortmund +275
To Advance: Dortmund +6500
Preview: Only one team has ever advanced through a Champions League knockout fixture after losing the first leg by four goals — the 2016-17 Barcelona team, led by Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, and Neymar Jr., who lost 4-0 to PSG in the first round before notching a spectacular 6-1 result in the second leg to shock the Parisians at Catalonia. It’s worth wondering if Hansi Flick might rotate his squad and rest some key players with the La Liga title fight still in the balance and the Copa del Rey final approaching on April 26, but if anyone knows that a comeback is technically possible, it’s Barça.
Either way, BVB’s front three of Karim Adeyemi, Jamie Gittens, and Serhou Guirassy is pretty good, but it’s no MSN. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dortmund puts at least one past Wojciech Szczęsny, given its overall talent and the possibility of Flick resting Ronald Araújo and Iñigo Martínez, but Barça will get at least one past Gregor Kobel, too.
After dispatching BVB, the Blaugrana will go on to face the winner of Inter-Bayern Munich in the semifinals.
Prediction: FC Barcelona 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
Paris Saint-Germain at Aston Villa, April 15, 3 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Paris Saint-Germain +110, Draw +265, Aston Villa +225
To Advance: Paris Saint-Germain -2000, Aston Villa +900
Preview: Villa isn’t completely out of it: two-goal comebacks are doable, especially since the tie will take place at Villa Park, where the Villans have lost just twice in all competitions all season. They’ve had some high-quality wins at home: a 1-0 result against Bayern Munich in the league phase and a 2-1 win over Manchester City in Matchweek 17 of the Premier League. For all of City’s struggles this season and PSG’s dominance, I’d consider them of a similar overall quality, so there’d be some recent precedent for a Villa win in this leg.
The issue was, the first leg really wasn’t close. PSG rocketed 29 shots, 10 of which found the target, and only a seven-save performance by Emiliano Martínez even kept it within a doable margin. The French champions were in possession 75% of the time, completed 93% of their passes, and sent 74 passes into the final third to Villa’s 12. They also have nothing to play for domestically, while Villa isn’t guaranteed to even stay in the European places.
It won’t be easy or comfortable, but PSG will get the job done before facing another English side — Arsenal — in the semis as both teams chase their first-ever Champions League title.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 1, Aston Villa 1
