UPDATE: New Orleans Pelicans point guard Jose Alvarado (calf) has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Today is the last day of the NBA regular season where not every team is in action. With 20 teams taking the court yesterday, the remaining 10 will play their third-to-last game of the season tonight. Then, all 30 teams will play Friday and Sunday as the regular season concludes. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the 10 teams in action, especially those with nothing to play for.
For the final time this regular season, here are my best bets for tonight’s action at DraftKings Sportsbook, with one bet from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 (-108)
After their last game, a 135-113 win over the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday without the injured Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers clinched the first seed in the Eastern Conference — a little later, perhaps, than one might’ve expected a few weeks ago when they were on their second 15-plus-game winning streak of the season — and multiple starters will miss tonight’s game against Indiana, who they’re seemingly likely to face in the second round of the playoffs. Darius Garland is out with a toe injury, Mitchell is still hobbled after spraining his ankle in Sunday’s loss to the Sacramento Kings, and Evan Mobley is resting.
It’s hard to know what Cleveland will look like tonight, given that it’s been one of the healthiest teams in the NBA all season. In fact, the Cavaliers have had at least two of their three All-Stars — Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley — available in every single game so far. But even with all three off the floor, Cleveland still cooks opponents — at plus-5.1, Mobley has the largest on-off split of any of the team’s All-Stars, and with him off the floor, the Cavaliers still win by 7.3 points per 100 possessions. Of Cleveland’s five projected starters tonight, all of them have an on-court net rating of plus-9.5 or better. The Cavaliers might not be deep enough to win this game down four starters, but they could easily keep it competitive.
Jalen Brunson 30+ Points (+155)
Thursday will represent Brunson’s third game back after an ankle sprain that cost him more than a month of action, and while he’s been somewhat inconsistent in his two games so far, his second game was clearly better than his first. He should be healthier now and motivated to help New York lock up the third seed in the East against its likely first-round playoff opponent, Detroit. The Knicks — who have also been among the healthiest teams in the league this season — will be without both OG Anunoby (thumb) and Josh Hart (knee) for the first time. In Anunoby’s six-game absence in early January with a foot sprain, Brunson averaged 28.7 points per game, scoring 30 or more points thrice.
In the absence of both stellar wings, one of New York’s three healthy stars — Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Karl-Anthony Towns — will step up. During Anunoby’s absence, Brunson’s usage rate increased by 1.7 percentage points relative to his average over the Knicks’ first 49 games, while Towns saw a 1.2 percentage-point jump and Bridges a 3.0 percentage-point drop. Plus, Cade Cunningham — while a decent defender in his own right, thanks to his six-foot-six frame — is worse on that side of the ball than either Ausar Thompson, who’s likely to be marking Bridges, or center Jalen Duren. Duren is a capable rim protector and Thompson an All-Defense level game-wrecker, leaving Brunson with the most favorable matchup.
Atlanta Hawks O124.5 Points (+100)
This game is one between two polar opposites of style. Atlanta plays at the league’s third-fastest pace, scores the fifth-most points, draws the third-most free-throw attempts, whips the ninth-fewest passes, and snags the second-most steals. Meanwhile, Brooklyn operates at its third-slowest pace, scores the second-fewest points, draws the sixth-fewest free throw attempts, throws the fifth-most passes, and racks up the 11th-fewest steals. Even the teams’ jerseys — the Hawks pop with bright shades of red and yellow and blocky text, while the Nets don simple black and white kits — couldn’t contrast more.
There was a brief period in which Brooklyn looked to have figured out its defensive issues — in February, the Nets posted the league’s sixth-best defensive rating — but since the start of March, the team has posted just a 5-15 record and had a below-average defense while picking up the pace slightly, a span in which Atlanta has had the league’s fifth-best offense while still playing at a lightning-quick pace. Trae Young has found his groove, averaging 25.0 points and 12.1 assists per game on improved efficiency since the start of March, and first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has had the occasional offensive outburst too. The Hawks went off for 147 points in regulation on Sunday against the Utah Jazz.
Jose Alvarado 25+ Points + Assists (+105)
I like to think of my NBA player comparison as Alvarado because we’re both undersized, fiercely competitive guys with inconsistent jump shots who are mostly known for defensive effort and snag a surprising amount of boards because of good positioning. To be fair, I definitely only play real minutes in my co-ed Tuesday night league because it’d be uncouth not to get me at least a few minutes in Volo Sports competition, so let’s not pretend like I’m not horrific at basketball, but I just root for guys like Alvarado who don’t look like your classic hooper. Not only is it impressive that he’s even in the league at six feet tall and 179 pounds, he’s putting up somewhat star-level stats as basically the only healthy player on New Orleans’ roster, hitting 25 P/A in two of his last three games.
Milwaukee has been okay since losing point guard Damian Lillard for the season, going 7-4 to put itself in pole position for the fifth seed in the East, but it hasn’t been because of elite defense. The Bucks have had the league’s 12th-worst defensive rating since Lillard’s injury after ranking as its 10th-best before Lillard went down, despite Lillard grading out as a worse defender than his replacement, Ryan Rollins. Alvarado likes to shoot threes, taking 59.3% of his shots from beyond the arc this season, and Milwaukee has allowed the 11th-most three-point attempts in the league since Lillard’s injury. It’s also conceded the eighth-most assists per game.
Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline (-122)
Memphis will play important games on back-to-back nights, beginning with tonight’s contest against Minnesota and continuing tomorrow night against the slumping Denver Nuggets, who broke a four-game losing streak last night with a 124-116 win over the Sacramento Kings in David Adelman’s coaching debut. While cooking up my predictions for this article on how the Western Conference seeding race might turn out, I posited that the Grizzlies would lose tonight and win tomorrow night. Despite several of my picks — including the Timberwolves beating the Bucks on Tuesday — already backfiring, I’m going to stick with my guns on this one and bank on a Minnesota victory.
You can look at the Timberwolves’ 24-point blown fourth-quarter lead on Tuesday in one of two ways — either that they erred drastically in losing the contest or that they were good enough in the first place to build such a big margin against a contender. I’m going to believe the latter; since the start of March, Minnesota is 14-4 with the league’s fourth-best net rating. Besides slight slip-ups in February and in April so far, the Timberwolves have improved very single month of the season. Meanwhile, Memphis has been a mediocre team since the All-Star break, recently fired its head coach, and just lost rookie Jaylen Wells to a broken wrist. The team has been 1.9 points better per 100 possessions with Wells on the floor this season, and his absence could prove all the difference.
