Major League Baseball continues a great opening weekend with a spectacular Saturday of action as all 30 teams are in action. Twelve of them are on the main DFS features slate Saturday night. While we’re to the third pitcher in most rotations, Saturday night still has some strong starting pitchers scheduled to take the hill. Let’s take a look at my MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for this Saturday night.
Before we get into the rankings, a quick note about what to expect. I’ve selected my top five MLB DFS pitcher picks from the slate and tried to hit a variety of price points. Depending on what the rest of your roster looks like and how much risk you are good with, you should pick from whichever options best fit your roster needs. Based on lineup constructions, ownership projections and value expectations, these are the top five that I’m targeting for my lineups. You can choose your own adventure and combine whichever of these top five you think make the most sense for Saturday night.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
1. Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners ($7,900)
Miller was my top starting pitcher option in my targets and values for the day, and I’m standing by that here in this post. In fact, I’d take Miller over the rest of the starters on this slate even if salary was not a factor. The fact that there are four starting pitchers priced higher than him makes him even more valuable for fantasy.
Not only does Miller have a favorable matchup against the Athletics, he’s taking the mound at home, where he had a 1.96 ERA and 2.45 FIP to go with a 10.4 K/9 last season. Overall, he went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA, an 8.5 K/9 and 3.58 FIP.
He had a solid spring training and worked up to 5 1/3 innings in his last start. Miller takes the top spot in my MLB DFS pitcher picks and brings a high ceiling as he looks to get the Mariners back on track after Friday night’s loss.
2. Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves ($8,800)
The Braves are still searching for their first win of the season as they send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound on Saturday in San Diego. Schwellenbach’s matchup isn’t as favorable as Miller’s, but he brings a similar ceiling. He joined the Braves as a midseason call-up last year and went 8-7 with a 3.35 ERA, 3.29 FIP and 9.2 K/9.
The 24-year-old was especially strong in his last eight starts, going 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA even though his strikeout rate dropped to 7.9 K/9 in those eight outings. Earlier in the season, Schwellenbach started in San Diego in a similar matchup, going seven innings for one run and earning a win while allowing only three hits.
This spring, Schwellenbach looked sharp. He allowed seven runs in 21 innings while racking up 28 strikeouts. He was especially masterful against the Yankees 10 days ago, throwing six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts.
3. Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros ($7,500)
A third young hurler with a high strikeout ceiling to target on Saturday night is Spencer Arrighetti of the Astros. He’ll be in a tough matchup against the Mets, but he still has a very high ceiling, indicated by his 10.6 K/9 in his 29 games last year.
He only went 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 4.18 FIP overall last season but settled in late in the year, posting a 2.36 ERA and 3.75 FIP over his last six games. Like Schwellenbach, Arrighetti found his footing after making adjustments and settling into the MLB and will look to build on that strong finish early this year. In spring training, Arrighetti looked solid with a 3.71 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 17 innings.
The Mets have only scored four runs in the first two games of the season and are hitting .183 as a team. While they have plenty of power potential, Arrighetti has enough upside to check in at No. 3 in my MLB DFS pitcher picks for Saturday.
4. Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers ($8,500)
In terms of raw talent, Sasaki is probably the top pitcher on Saturday’s slate. However, I’m not ranking him higher on this list because of his limited ceiling. He only went three innings in his MLB debut in the Tokyo Series. While he looked strong in those three innings with three strikeouts and just one hit and one run allowed, I don’t trust him to go deep in the game with the Dodgers closely monitoring his pitch count.
Sasaki definitely has a very high long-term ceiling and is still a great choice for Rookie of the Year. However, on this slate in a less-than-ideal matchup against Detroit, I’m not chasing him at this salary as much as I am the other three options mentioned ahead of him in my MLB DFS pitcher picks.
5. Griffin Canning, New York Mets ($6,700)
As I said yesterday, I usually reserve the final spot in my rankings for a flier play. I try to find an extremely cheap play that I think people are sleeping on and brings more of a ceiling than many realize. Yesterday, I had Marlins starter Connor Gillispie in this spot, and he delivered 8.45 fantasy points in five solid innings against the Pirates. Hopefully, we’ll get even more production out of Canning in this matchup against the Astros.
Canning is the ultimate boom-or-bust play on Saturday’s slate. He has a high ceiling based on his excellent spring training with the Mets. After being traded by the Angels and non-tendered by the Braves, he signed with New York and has embraced the recommended adjustments with exceptional results so far. In 14 1/3 Grapefruit League innings, Canning gave up just three runs on 11 hits and racked up 22 strikeouts. His impressive 13.8 K/9 and 1.88 ERA are likely an outlier due to small sample size, but they demonstrate how high the ceiling can still be for Canning.
If he was in a different matchup, I’d probably put Canning even higher in my MLB DFS pitcher picks, but he has a bad history against Houston. In the past, he’s just 0-3 with a 6.69 ERA in nine starts. Taking a “wait and see” approach on Canning is probably the better part of wisdom, but if you believe in the Canning turnaround and want to swing for the fences, he brings a high enough ceiling to be a GPP option.
