The NCAA Tournament field has thinned down the eight teams with the fight for the title heating up. Seven of the eight remaining squads entered the tournament as a top-two seed. The lone exception to this is three-seed Texas Tech, who will be looking to send Walter Clayton Jr. and the rest of Florida’s roster home today.
Florida had no trouble defeating Norfolk State in the opening round, winning 95-69. They then were pushed to the limit by UConn, squeezing by 77-75 before sending Maryland home in a convincing 87-71 victory. Meanwhile, Texas Tech defeated UNC Wilmington and Drake in the opening two rounds by a combined score of 159-136. They then produced an impressive come-from-behind victory against Arkansas to win 85-83 in an overtime contest during which they trailed 69-56 with 4:47 remaining in regulation.
Florida enters tonight’s game as 7.5-point favorites at -325 on the Moneyline. Texas Tech holds +260 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 157.5.
Ahead of Friday’s showdown, here is my favorite Walter Clayton Jr. player prop bet to place on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best Walter Clayton Jr prop bet for Saturday
While there are no typical over/under lines offered for college prop bets, you can bet Walter Clayton Jr to record 21+ points, 4+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 3+ made three-pointers, or 29+ combined points, rebounds, and assists on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Fellow DraftKings Network writer Dan Johnson is backing Walter Clayton Jr. to record 27+ which he locked in yesterday at -110 odds. It should be noted there has been some line movement following the uncertain outlook of Alex Condon, but he writes up in his analysis:
Walter Clayton Jr. has been on an absolute tear, and tonight’s matchup against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight offers a prime opportunity for him to clear 27 points, rebounds, and assists. Clayton’s performance in Florida’s Sweet Sixteen win over Maryland was a masterclass in scoring and playmaking, dropping 22 points and dishing out six assists. He’s been an integral part of the Gators’ offensive game plan, and his all-around play has taken center stage, particularly in the postseason.
Over the last five games, Clayton’s numbers have skyrocketed. In the SEC Tournament and March Madness, he averaged 21.25 points, 4.25 rebounds, and 7.5 assists, totaling 32 points, rebounds, and assists per game. This uptick comes as no surprise given his versatility and scoring ability—he’s been consistently playing at a high level, even when facing the toughest competition. And, with 87.7% free-throw shooting (including a 42 consecutive free throws made streak), he’s a constant threat to add easy points when drawing fouls.
Defensively, Texas Tech has shown weaknesses in handling high-usage guards like Clayton, allowing 40.2% shooting from the field against guards. More specifically, in their matchup with Arkansas, guards scored 20 points, shooting at a 44.6% clip. In Florida’s game against Maryland, guards scored 19 points on 46.1% shooting. this is a good sign for Clayton’s PRA threshold, here.
With Florida’s uptempo offense and Clayton’s ability to drive and dish, he’s in a perfect position to capitalize on these weaknesses and put up major numbers.
While I certainly have no critiques of this outlook, my favorite Walter Clayton Jr. prop bet is for the Florida guard to connect with 3+ three-pointers at -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The 6-foot-2 guard has attempted 7.8 three-point attempts per game this season and is connecting at a 38.6% rate. This comes out to an average of 3.0 made three-pointers per game and he has connected with three or more perimeter shots in 19 of 36 games this season. He has made at least one three-pointer in every game this season and has shot 11-for-23 across three NCAA Tournament games thus far.
Texas Tech has a high-level defense that ranks 58th in opponent scoring by holding teams to 68.0 points per game. They limit opponents to the 40th-fewest three-point attempts at just 19.6 perimeter shots per game. Teams have shot just 32.2% from beyond the three-point arc against the Red Raiders this season. Florida will be an interesting clash for this as they attempt 27.8 three-pointers per game, which ranks 30th in the country. Clayton Jr. leads the charge in this category with his 7.8 perimeter shots per contest.
Arkansas shot 10-for-25 from beyond the three-point arc against Texas Tech in the previous round with Johnell Davis and Karter Knox each connecting on 3+ three-pointers. Look for Clayton Jr. to note the success they had and lean on the same offensive tactic. Florida can only go as far as their star guard can take them and he will have an increased workload if Alex Condon cannot play or is limited. Clayton Jr. has knocked down three or more three-pointers in six of his past seven games leading into this matchup. Expect Florida to have a clear focus on creating perimeter looks and for Clayton Jr. to do his part by connecting on at least three three-pointers tonight.
Best Bet: Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ Three-Pointers (-120)
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