For a longer form analysis on one of tonight’s games, check out my piece on Houston vs. Purdue for their Sweet Sixteen game tonight here. But, otherwise, I’ve barely even touched these games! So I decided to run through some mini preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for all the Sweet Sixteen games I didn’t write up individually: Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, Michigan vs. Auburn, and Kentucky vs. Tennessee.
Here’s how I’m playing all the games tonight, both in terms of total and ATS. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Predictions and picks for every Sweet Sixteen Thursday game
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss ATS
Michigan State enters this matchup as one of the most formidable defensive units in the tournament. In the Round of 64 and 32, the Spartans held opponents to just 39.2% shooting, a testament to their suffocating defense. Ranked No. 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency in the tournament, Michigan State has excelled in forcing turnovers (they rank 3rd in turnover margin in the 2024-2025 NCAA Tournament). Ole Miss, on the other hand, has struggled offensively all season, ranking No. 238 in offensive efficiency in conference play. In March Madness, they’ve managed just 65.3 PPG against two weak opponents. Michigan State’s depth, particularly from their veteran backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard, gives them a significant advantage here. With the Spartans’ defense limiting fast-break opportunities and slowing down the game, I expect Michigan State to control tempo and cover the -3.5 spread.
Pick: Michigan State -3.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Total Pick
Michigan State’s commitment to defense and slowing the game down will be pivotal in this matchup. They’ve proven in March Madness that they can stifle any fast-break attempts and keep the game under control. The Spartans have allowed just 61 points per game in their tournament games so far and rank No. 13 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ole Miss’ struggles on offense, coupled with their ranking outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency, suggest that they’ll have a hard time cracking Michigan State’s defense. With Michigan State averaging just 67.1 PPG in tournament play and Ole Miss unable to generate efficient offense, the under on this total feels like the safest bet.
Pick: Under 144.5 (-110)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee ATS
This matchup is all about Kentucky’s ability to capitalize on Tennessee’s offensive vulnerabilities. Kentucky has been absolutely red-hot in the tournament, with Otega Oweh and CJ Fredrick leading an offense that ranks No. 13 in PPG in the tournament (82.4 PPG). Tennessee, while elite defensively, has struggled offensively, ranking No. 109 in offensive efficiency in the tournament. They’ve also been inconsistent at generating points in the half-court, which plays right into Kentucky’s hands. Kentucky’s defense has been excellent, holding opponents to just 39.8% shooting in their first two tournament games. With the Volunteers struggling to keep pace with Kentucky’s firepower and Oweh stepping up in crucial moments, I like Kentucky to cover the +4.5 spread.
Pick: Kentucky +4.5 (-110)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Total Pick
Kentucky has scored 80+ points in four of their last six games, and with Tennessee’s high defensive intensity, they will look to get out and run when possible. However, Tennessee’s offense has been finding its rhythm lately, scoring an average of 75.3 points per game in March. Kentucky’s offense, fueled by their up-tempo play, combined with Tennessee’s ability to score in transition, will push this total. With both teams scoring efficiently, especially in high-stress tournament play, this game has the makings of a fast-paced battle that will likely go over the 144.5 total.
Pick: Over 144.5 (-110)
Auburn vs. Michigan ATS
Auburn may be a high-powered offensive machine, but Michigan’s ability to weather storms and control the tempo makes them an excellent pick to cover this spread. Michigan has thrived in tournament play, overcoming adversity in their first two games, and their defense has been solid enough to frustrate even high-scoring offenses. The Wolverines, averaging 73.1 PPG on the season, have had some offensive flashes in March Madness and are adept at getting to the free-throw line, a key factor in keeping games close. Michigan ranks 19th nationally in free throw rate, getting to the line 25.6% of their possessions. Auburn’s defense, while effective at times, has shown vulnerability to teams that can grind out possessions and hit tough shots in the halfcourt—something Michigan excels at. Michigan ranks 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency, showcasing their ability to score in a variety of ways. Michigan’s rebounding, particularly their offensive boards (ranking No. 32 in offensive rebound percentage), will give them extra opportunities to score and keep this game tight. While Auburn has depth, Michigan’s ability to slow the game down and control tempo will keep this spread in range, especially as the Wolverines continue to find their rhythm. Michigan’s defense has also been tough, ranking 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which will help them limit Auburn’s high-scoring offense.
Pick: Michigan +8.5 (-105)
Auburn vs. Michigan Total Pick
Auburn has been relentless on offense, scoring over 80 points in their last two games, and Michigan, though defensively solid in stretches, hasn’t faced an offensive force like Auburn yet. The Tigers rank No. 4 in the tournament in points per possession (1.16 PPP), while Michigan has been inconsistent defensively, especially in transition. While Michigan has shooters, Auburn’s ability to convert defensive stops into fast-break points will wear them down, pushing the total over 154.5. With both teams likely to get up-and-down the floor, this game has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 154.5 (-115)
Houston vs. Purdue ATS
Quoted from my Houston vs. Purdue game prediction, as linked above:
Houston’s transition defense, ranked fourth nationally, will neutralize Purdue’s fast-break offense, which has been effective but will face a tougher challenge against the Cougars’ suffocating pressure. With Houston also ranking seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, they are more than equipped to handle Purdue’s offensive game, which relies heavily on ball screens and perimeter shooting. Purdue struggles in half-court sets, ranking No. 101 in adjusted offensive efficiency in half-court situations, and this was clearly demonstrated in both of their March Madness games, as seen above.
The spread of -8.5 for Houston seems generous given the Cougars’ overall dominance. Their defense, rebounding, and ability to disrupt Purdue’s offense will make it difficult for the Boilermakers to keep pace. Houston’s physicality will overpower Purdue’s defense, and the Cougars should cover this number with relative ease.
Pick: Houston -8.5 (-110)
Houston vs. Purdue Total Pick
Purdue’s offensive firepower, led by the versatile Trey Kaufman-Renn and legacy guard Braden Smith, is a well-oiled machine that has been putting up strong point totals all season. The Boilermakers have averaged 80.2 points per game this season and have surpassed the 70-point mark in both their tournament games so far, including a dominant 82-point performance against High Point in the round of 64. Houston’s offense has been equally potent, averaging 74.5 points per game, with a strong showing of 81 points against Gonzaga. Despite being a defensive juggernaut, the Cougars’ offense can put up big numbers when needed, especially with their ability to convert defensive rebounds into quick transition points. The combination of both teams’ offensive strengths, coupled with a fast-paced game environment, should push this total over 133.5. Given both teams’ recent offensive outputs, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 133.5 (-110)
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