MLB Prop Bets for Opening Day 2025. What a glorious sentence to type out.
Here, and throughout the week on DraftKings Network, I’ll give out my favorite MLB Prop bets Monday through Friday. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for all the MLB insight I’ll be tweeting throughout the year. Let’s get right into some bets I’ll be making for Opening Day 2025.
MLB Prop Bets for Opening Day, 3/27/25
Tarik Skubal under 17.5 outs recorded +100
Skubal is coming off a phenomenal Spring Training that saw him throw 19.1 innings with a 2.33 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a ridiculous 24/1 K:BB ratio. So, naturally, I want to bet the under on his recorded outs prop for Thursday!
Skubal couldn’t have drawn a tougher matchup for Opening Day, facing the Dodgers. This team is going to be a nightmare for lefties, and Skubal will be no exception. The expected lineup on Opening Day had a combined .378 wOBA, a .246 ISO, and a 19.6 K% against lefties. Those numbers improve slightly against four-seam fastballs, which is the main pitch thrown by Skubal. He did well against the Dodgers last season, going six innings in his start, but he also faced a much weaker lineup that night. It didn’t have Mookie Betts (who is expected to play) or Tommy Edman, who are two of their better hitters against lefties. Especially on Opening Day, teams won’t feel the need to stretch their starters at any early signs of trouble. Thus, I’m taking under 17.5 outs for Skubal.
New York Mets team total over 3.5 runs -120
The addition of Juan Soto during the offseason was massive, of course. But it solidifies this lineup, and I think we’ll see that on full display on Thursday. They’ll be facing Framber Valdez, who was excellent last year. That said, he’ll have a very tough task against this Mets team that hits sinkers well. Valdez threw his sinker 46% of the time last season, and it was a big reason why he struggled in his start against the Mets last year. They tagged him for six runs (three earned) on eight hits through 4.2 innings in late June. With the addition of Soto, who had a .434 wOBA and a .157 ISO against that pitch, the Mets will be a tough out.
Combined, this lineup had a .494 wOBA and an insane .391 ISO against sinkers from lefties last season. As mentioned, Valdez was great last year, but I think this team’s total is a bit low when you consider how well they performed against his primary pitch last season. I’m grabbing the over on 3.5 runs for the Mets.
Arizona Diamondbacks over 4.5 runs +114
This is one of the last games scheduled for Opening Day, with a start time of 10:10 p.m. ET. I like this one in favor of the Diamondbacks, and I expect them to put up some offense against starter Justin Steele. We already saw Steele during Opening Day Part 1, when he was roughed up by the Dodgers in Japan. Through four innings, Steele allowed five runs on five hits, including two home runs, and recorded five strikeouts. The Diamondbacks are a team that’ll rough up left-handed pitching, particularly one that throws a lot of fastballs like Steele. Steele relies on two pitches: his fastball and slider. He threw them a combined 92% of the time in his first start, which aligns with his numbers from last year.
The D-Backs are an excellent fastball-hitting team against lefties. Tomorrow’s expected lineup had a combined .353 wOBA, a .171 ISO, and just an 18% K% against that pitch last season. The addition of Josh Naylor will bring some extra pop to the lineup, boasting a .186 ISO against that pitch with the Guardians last season. I think we’ll see some solid offense from the D-Backs tomorrow, especially from a team that averaged the highest number of runs when playing at home—5.6—last season.
Home Run Future Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook
This parlay will be available until the first pitch for the Red Sox and Rangers game at 4:05 p.m. ET. Go on DraftKings Sportsbook, go to the MLB section, and swipe through the content cards to join the sweat throughout the season! For my analysis on this, check out the article I wrote for it.
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