I love a good Home Run Parlay. It’s fun to sweat these season-long props throughout the season. Over on DraftKings Sportsbook, I’ve complied four hitters I like to hit at least 20 home runs during the 2025 MLB season. Here is how it breaks down:
Steve Buchanan’s Home Run Futures on DraftKings Sportsbook
On this card we have:
- Jarren Duran +145
- Carlos Correa +110
- Alex Bregman -190
- Riley Greene -175
Combined, we create a four-leg parlay with odds of +1108. Here is why I like each of these individual players to hit at least 20 home runs this season.
Jarren Duran +145
Duran is coming off a stellar 2024 season, which saw him slash .285/342/.492 with 21 home runs. Jumping from eight home runs in 2023 to 21 home runs in 2024 doesn’t look like it was a fluke. With an additional 373 plate appearances, Duran saw a huge jump in his barrel rate. His career-high 13.2% barrel rate was a big reason for the gain in power, while also seeing his hard-hit rate jump to 41.8%.
At +145, this implies the probability of Duran to hit at least 20 home runs at 40.8%. I believe that to be low, thus, we’re getting some solid value here. As the Red Sox leadoff hitter, should he stay healthy, he’s easily in line for 650+ plate appearances. With only missing two games last year, Duran logged 735 plate appearances. I believe he’ll take another step forward this year and set a new career-high in home runs.
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Carlos Correa +110
This is the wildcard of the parlay. Correa has endured several injuries but even in shortened seasons, was able to clear the 20 home run mark. Correa has been dealing with plantar fasciitis for the last two years but says he’s fully healthy entering 2025. So much so, that he said they’ve also taken extensive measures to ensure it doesn’t come up again. If that’s the case, and Correa can stay on the field, 20 home runs is an easy number for him to clear.
Correa has cleared this number five times in his 10 years in the majors. Back in 2019, he hit 21 home runs in just 75 games. Last season, while only logging 86 games and 14 home runs, put him on pace for over 25 home runs. This is the leg that can be sweaty. But if healthy, he’d not be someone I’d be concerned with clearing 20 home runs. If Correa was healthy last year, I’d imagine we wouldn’t be getting him at +110 to hit 20 home runs. In this scenario, his past health issues worked in our favor. His 44.7% hard-hit and 9.2% barrel rate last year shows me he’s still got it.
Alex Bregman -190
At -190, this implies a 65% chance of Bregman hitting at least 20 home runs. Bregman has hit VERY well at Fenway in his career, which includes 80 at-bats and seven home runs. While keeping up that pace is not logical, it’s a positive sign. Most of his home runs at Fenway went to either left or left-center field, which showcases Bregman’s pull strength. Coupled with Pesky’s Pole, which is a meager 302-foot-right-field line, Bregman should thrive at Fenway. He’s shown he can hit the opposite field with a 27% opposite-field fly ball rate in 2024.
Riley Greene -175
-175 for Green to hit 20 home runs gives us an implied probability of 63%. Greene is not someone that is talked about a lot when it comes to power but he should be in the conversation. His power has steadily increased each year he’s been in the big leagues, going from five to 11 and then 24 last year in 137 games. His HR/FB rate last year was an elite 19.4%. To put this into perspective, the league average currently sits at 11%. It feels as if the sky is the limit for Greene right now, who at 25 is on the cusp of hitting his prime. If I’m being honest, I think Greene should be priced more around where Bregman is at, with -190.
So there you have it. If you like this parlay, log onto DraftKings Sportsbook from your mobile device. From there, go to the MLB section where you’ll see our array of content cards for the 2025 season. Scroll through and you’ll find my Home Run Futures card available to bet. Good Luck!
