UPDATE: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (pelvic) has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
Tonight, Jimmy Butler returns to Miami for the first time since the blockbuster deal that sent him to the Golden State Warriors for a 7:30 p.m. ET nationally-televised matchup.
The intrigue would be high, but the teams have had drastically different fortunes since the deal. Since Butler made his Warriors debut on February 8, Golden State has had a 16-4 record and the league’s fifth-best net rating, while the Heat have gone 5-16 with its eighth-worst net rating, including a 10-game losing streak for the first time in the Erik Spoelstra era.
Butler’s averaging relatively modest stats as a Warrior — 17.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 44-23-85 shooting efficiency — but his impact on the court is noteworthy. Golden State has outscored opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Two-time MVP Stephen Curry, who is questionable for tonight’s game with a pelvic injury, has played impeccably since the deal, averaging 27.5 points per game, and he’s fallen just six made field goals shy of 50-40-90 efficiency during that span.
The Warriors are six-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-218 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 216.5. Meanwhile, Miami is +180 on the Moneyline.
Andrew Wiggins U21.5 Points (-125)
Wiggins has been on a tear in his last two games. The Canadian dropped 30 points on 10-for-13 shooting from the field (two-for-four from deep) in a 102-98 loss to the Houston Rockets that concluded the Heat’s losing streak. He then followed it up with 42 on Sunday night in a 122-105 win over the Charlotte Hornets, dropping 42 points on 16-for-21 shooting, including six-for-eight from beyond the arc. The Rockets have an incredible defense, but the Hornets do not. Expecting some regression to the mean — which, in his Miami stint, has meant exactly 21 points — is reasonable against an elite Golden State unit.
Plus, while I took a deep dive into revenge games prior to Luka Dončić’s inaugural game against the Dallas Mavericks and discovered that there was no real difference between players’ production in those games versus their average output, I suspect that the ultra-motivated Butler might be an outlier. He certainly has a track record — in his first game against the Chicago Bulls as a member of the Minnesota Timberwolves, he posted his highest usage rate and most combined P/R/A/S/B of the 2017-18 season, and the following season, he had his most efficient shooting game of the campaign in his first game against Minnesota after it dealt him to the Philadelphia 76ers. In his first game against the 76ers after joining the Heat, he was awful offensively, but he held Ben Simmons to his seventh-lowest game score of that season. It could easily manifest in him locking up Wiggins tonight.
Stephen Curry O4.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Perhaps I should be wary of betting on Curry, especially since his injury might either keep him out entirely or put him on a minutes restriction that would severely limit his chances. I just can’t argue against the greatest shooter of all time, who has truly played like the vintage version of himself since the trade. Even if he’s hit four or fewer threes in each of his last four games, and his most prolific three-point shooting game — in which he went 12-for-19 in a 56-point explosion — came with Butler inactive, I simply believe in Curry too much.
I also don’t believe in this Miami defense, which has allowed the 11th-most made three-pointers on the 11th-best percentage since the trade deadline. Wiggins has been okay, but several other Heat defenders who might have to guard a Curry triple haven’t been effective at stopping those shots. Since the trade deadline, starting point guard Tyler Herro has allowed opponents to shoot 6.1 percentage points better than usual as the nearest defender, while backup Davion Mitchell, known as a defensive stalwart, has only fared 4.0 percentage points better than his teammate. Terry Rozier, too, has allowed opponents to shoot 43.2% from deep. With a roster stacked with bad defensive guards, the Heat are extremely susceptible to Curry doing what Curry does best.
Bam Adebayo O0.5 Blocks (-120)
Out of fairness to both teams, I like to highlight at least one positive aspect and one negative aspect of each team in these game prop articles. There isn’t a lot to dislike about this current iteration of Golden State, to be honest, so nothing particularly stands out. Since Butler’s debut, the Warriors have allowed the third-fewest points, sixth-fewest rebounds, fifth-fewest assists, and ninth-fewest steals while forcing the most turnovers. The only area in which Golden State somewhat struggles is that it has allowed 4.6 blocks per game, merely the 13th-fewest in the league since the trade deadline.
I’d previously suggested that Adebayo would record zero blocks on March 3 against the Washington Wizards, and I was ultimately incorrect; his swat of Kyshawn George’s layup late in the first half was the only block that he recorded in the first half of the month. Since then, though, Adebayo has recorded six blocks, all of which came in a span of four games. Although he hasn’t recorded a block in either of his past two contests, the overall track record — at least one rejection in four of his last six games — is pretty good. Four Golden State players — Butler (43), Jonathan Kuminga (43), Trayce Jackson-Davis (42), and Curry (41) — rank among the league’s 100 most-frequently blocked players, and all except Jackson-Davis figure to play significant minutes tonight.
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