Since the shocking blockbuster trade that sent Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers and Anthony Davis to the Dallas Mavericks on February 1, one date has been circled on both men’s calendars: February 25. Tonight, the Lakers will take on the Mavericks for the first time since the deal in one of the most highly-anticipated regular-season matchups in recent memory.
It was supposed to be a revenge game for Davis, too, but the oft-injured power forward went down with an adductor strain in his first game in Dallas and will miss tonight’s game. Los Angeles surely would’ve prepared a tribute video for Davis and greeted him with a standing ovation, but that reception will have to wait until next season, unless the two teams meet in the playoffs.
Speaking of the playoffs, the Lakers picked up a signature win on Saturday against the Denver Nuggets, coming away with a 123-100 victory on the road. Dončić had his finest game in the purple and gold, recording 32 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists. Los Angeles trails the Nuggets by two games for the third seed in the Western Conference, and it’s ahead of the fifth-place Houston Rockets only because it has played two fewer games.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks’ slide started the moment Dončić was injured on Christmas Day, and Dallas hasn’t really turned it around since. The Mavericks are 31-27, tied with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the seventh seed, but the fast-charging Golden State Warriors are just half a game behind. Thankfully, the Phoenix Suns’ dysfunction and Victor Wembanyama’s injury means Dallas is virtually assured of at least a Play-In Tournament spot, but being the eighth seed would mean a first-round matchup against the historically great Oklahoma City Thunder.
Lakers’ fans expectations for Dončić are high in his first game against the Mavericks. He looked healthier and happier against Denver than he previously had in a Los Angeles uniform, and his partnership with LeBron James was dynamic-shifting. The Lakers have the third-best odds to win the Western Conference at DraftKings Sportsbook and have the league’s fourth-best net rating over their past 10 games.
As a Lakers fan, I’m excited to see what Dončić can do to prove that Nico Harrison made a mistake to trade him. Dončić has been known throughout his career for his fiery emotional displays on the court, and sources have reported that he was devastated and blindsided by the trade, so he’ll surely be extra motivated tonight. Most of the greatest players in NBA are of Dončić’s competitive ilk. In this column, I offer an answer to one simple question: do stars play better in their revenge games?
Since the 2018-19 season, there have been 11 instances in which a player was named to an All-NBA team and joined a new team less than a year later, including two instances involving Russell Westbrook and two involving Kevin Durant. In each case, I looked at how each player performed in his first game against his former team to determine if there was any noticeable difference in performance in revenge games, using both counting stats and advanced numbers. In particular, I considered usage rate to test my additional hypothesis that teams are more willing to feed their stars in their revenge games.
How did stars perform in their revenge games?
The list of games in question includes the following, sorted in reverse chronological order:
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns vs. Brooklyn Nets (December 13, 2023): 27 points, six rebounds, four assists, one steal, two blocks, 9/18 FG, 1/5 3P, 8/10 FT
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers (November 26, 2023): 31 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals, zero blocks, 7/21 FG, 4/12 3P, 13/14 FT
James Harden, Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets (March 3, 2021): 29 points, 10 rebounds, 14 assists, three steals, one block, 10/15 FG, 4/8 3P, 5/7 FT
Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (January 27, 2021): 32 points, five rebounds, five assists, one steal, zero blocks, 12/21 FG, 3/8 3P, 5/5 FT
Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets (January 26, 2021): 19 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, zero steals, zero blocks, 7/17 FG, 1/4 3P, 4/8 FT
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (December 25, 2020): 37 points, six rebounds, eight assists, one steal, zero blocks, 13/21 FG, 7/10 3P, 4/4 FT
Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets vs. Golden State Warriors (December 22, 2020): 22 points, five rebounds, three assists, three steals, one block, 7/16 FG, 1/2 3P, 7/7 FT
Paul George, LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (November 18, 2019): 18 points, seven rebounds, four assists, zero steals, zero blocks, 7/14 FG, 3/7 3P, 1/2 FT
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers vs. Toronto Raptors (November 11, 2019): 12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, three steals, zero blocks, 2/11 FG, 0/4 3P, 8/9 FT
Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets (November 7, 2019): 14 points, two rebounds, six assists, one steal, zero blocks, 4/12 FG, 3/9 3P, 3/3 FT
Russell Westbrook, Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (October 28, 2019): 21 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists, one steal, zero blocks, 9/16 FG, 0/1 3P, 3/4 FT
Did stars put up better counting stats during their revenge games?
Surprisingly, seven of the 11 players stuffed the box sheet less in their revenge games than they did in an average game that season. The biggest over-performer was Irving on Christmas Day in 2020, when he recorded 52 combined points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. During the 2020-21 season, he averaged just 39.8 combined P/R/A/S/B. On the other hand, the biggest under-performer was Westbrook in 2021, when he recorded 10.2 fewer P/R/A/S/B than his season averages in his return to Houston as a member of the Wizards. The ultra-consistent Durant had the most average game, recording just 0.8 fewer P/R/A/S/B than his season averages in 2023.
I also isolated the the previous five and next five games in order to control for whether the player was in the middle of a hot streak or shooting slump at the time in which he played his revenge game, because the NBA season is long and season-long trends do not always accurately capture a player’s expected performance at any given point in time. In a few cases — Westbrook and George in 2019, as well as Irving and Durant in 2020 — I couldn’t isolate five games beforehand, because the player’s revenge game occurred within his first five games of the season.
Only five of the 11 players had a worse-than-average performance when you consider their immediate form, thanks to Westbrook. The 2016-17 MVP got off to slow starts with both the Rockets in 2019-20 and Wizards in 2020-21, so his revenge games actually represented slight over-performances given his form at the time.
Did stars put up better advanced stats during their revenge games?
Bringing in advanced stats muddles the picture even further.
By game score — a composite metric that assesses a player’s overall contribution during a given game that takes into account both counting stats and efficiency — six of the 11 players had a better-than-average game on a season-long basis, and four of the 11 players outperformed their form at the time, with Durant in 2023 producing an exactly average game. Starting with Irving in 2020, five of the last six players have outperformed their average performance in their revenge games.
Six of the players shot the ball more poorly than their season averages, with Leonard’s game against the Raptors in 2019 being the biggest outlier. Of the players who underperformed by efficiency standards, Westbrook in 2021 and Durant in 2023 were closest to their averages. Harden saw the biggest jump in his efficiency; the 80.0% effective field goal percentage that he posted in his revenge game was 25.2 percentage points better than his 2020-21 average and 27.7 percentage points better than his form at the time. Irving also shot 21 percentage points better than his season average during his revenge game.
The evidence is somewhat unclear on whether teams try to feed their stars more during their revenge games. While Lillard, Paul, and Westbrook in 2021 posted significantly higher usage rates during their revenge games than their season averages in their revenge games, most players’ usage rate was within a standard deviation of their mean. Leonard and Walker both posted significantly lower usage rates than their season averages, but in Leonard’s case, perhaps it’s because he was playing so poorly. In his 2020 revenge game, Durant’s 30.7% usage rate was slightly higher than his early-season average but lower than his season-long average, the only player with such a discrepancy. That can be explained by the fact that it was his first game in 561 days after tearing his Achilles in Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals, so Brooklyn eased him into the season.
What can we expect from Dončić tonight?
The data is unclear on what to expect from Dončić, given the unprecedented nature of his situation. None of the 11 players listed above were dealt against their will, so none of the players were as emotionally-charged as Dončić likely will be tonight, given that he wanted to be — and assumed he’d be — a Maverick for life. There have also never been as few days between an All-NBA player changing teams and his revenge game as Dončić’s 24.
The most similar situations I can think of are those of George, Walker, and Leonard, but none are perfect fits. George’s trade came as a surprise to much of the league and he was coming off his career-best season, although it was later revealed that the forward had grown uneasy in Oklahoma City. In Walker’s case, the Hornets didn’t covet their all-time leading scorer enough to give him a supermax contract, so he opted to sign with Boston instead of inking Charlotte’s five-year, $160 million pact. So while Walker left the Hornets by his own volition, it was influenced by Charlotte’s lower valuation of him. Similarly, while Leonard opted to leave Toronto, Raptors fans will always cherish their memories of him from the 2019 championship run just like Dallas faithful still think of Dončić positively. Unfortunately for Dončić, George, Walker, and Leonard were the three biggest under-performers by game score during their revenge games.
Tonight, Dončić’s over-under props are 31.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.5 steals. Taking those figures, the 50 combined P/R/A/S/B that he is expected to post would be the third-best by any player in his revenge game, 5.3 P/R/A/S/B better than his season averages, and 15.7 P/R/A/S/B better than his averages as a Laker so far. Only Harden, Paul, and Irving outperformed their season averages by so much in their revenge games, and none outperformed their recent form by so much. The evidence presented in this column indicates that, more likely than not, Dončić’s will record fewer than 48.5 P/R/A.
I can see a scenario in which Dončić is more motivated than he’s ever been and records his best game in the purple and gold, screaming in his former teammates’ faces after step-back three after step-back three. But it’s equally likely that pregame handshakes with his former teammates make him emotional and he shoots the ball inefficiently, just like Leonard did.
After researching and writing this article, I’m still optimistic about Dončić tonight, and I’m sure he’ll put on a show, efficient or inefficient, win or lose. But my optimism is more measured now.
