Prior to March Madness, I put out a play on Houston to reach the Elite Eight as one of my larger futures. Personally, I did play some plus-money on the Cougs to reach the Final Four, but at this stage, I’ll put out another pick on them to get there at the current price. Let’s breakdown Houston’s path to the Final Four below.
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To Reach the Final Four: Houston (-130)
The Cougars have lived up to the hype thus far as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, trouncing SIU-E in the first round, and defeating one of the best 8-seeds you’ll ever see in the NCAA Tournament in Gonzaga. The Zags were a serious test for Houston in the second round for many reasons. Mainly, Gonzaga’s just really good, grading out as a top-10 team in the country by most metrics. But how Houston defeated the Bulldogs was a good sign, winning a higher scoring game against one of the elite offenses in the nation.
That’s the major difference in Kelvin Sampson’s team this season — its offense. Defense has been Houston’s calling card year after year, and that was no different this season, with the No. 2 defense nationally. However, when the Cougars have bowed out early during March Madness, it’s generally been due to stalling out on offense. That shouldn’t be the case this time around, entering March Madness with a top-10 offense. We saw that offense on display on Saturday night against Gonzaga.
Now the scene shifts to Indianapolis, where you’ll hear some hype about Purdue getting a home crowd for this Sweet Sixteen matchup. While not a knock on the Boilermakers, we do have to look at who they beat to get here — 13-seed High Point and 12-seed McNeese. Purdue is in for a rude awakening on Friday night when the Cougars come to town.
Houston has massive advantages on both sides of the ball, and maybe its biggest advantage in the paint. The Boilermakers have struggled against size this season, and the Cougars have plenty of it. Look for the bigs of Houston to set the tone in this one, and while Purdue has a solid backcourt, I’ll give the edge to Houston there too.
Assuming the Cougars get through on Friday, we’d have a nice price on them to advance as a big favorite on Sunday. They’ll draw the winner of Kentucky and Tennessee, which is a matchup I like Purdue in regardless. I think the -130 price to advance to the Final Four is cheaper than rolling over the moneylines against Purdue and Tennessee, which is favored over Kentucky. And if the Wildcats happen to upset the Vols for the third time this season, then Houston would be an even larger favorite in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
I’ll fire on Houston to have success in two games in Indy, and reach the Final Four.
Final Four Pick: Houston (-130) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
