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No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 8 Gonzaga
Wichita, KS – Thursday 4:35pm ET
The Zags opened up laying 4.5 against the fellow Bulldogs, and were quickly bet up to 6.5 before settling in the 5.5/6 range. While UGA is a tough team, and very well tested out of the mighty SEC, it also got a very tough draw here. Gonzaga landed an 8-seed in this tournament, but many metrics also grade the Zags out as a top-10 team in the country — 9th in KenPom and 8th in the NET.
I’ll be using the Zags as my top moneyline parlay piece in the opening rounds, and will pair them with at least a couple of other teams I like to win outright — one play even coming in Wednesday’s NIT action. Both Bulldog teams rank pretty evenly defensively, with UGA 26th in defensive efficiency and Gonzaga 29th. However, Georgia doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Zags, who rank in the top-10 in offensive efficiency, compared to just 54th for UGA.
Gonzaga has the experience, with this being the 24th NCAA Tournament appearance for Mark Few, who’s made nine consecutive runs to the Sweet Sixteen or further. While I think that streak comes to an end at the hands of Houston, the Zags have more than enough to get out of the first-round here, in a much more lopsided 8-seed vs. 9-seed matchup than we’re accustomed to.
While Georgia will try to slow the pace in this one, I’m not sure it will matter unless Gonzaga is really off its game. The Zags have a +7.0 rebounding margin this season, compared to -2.3 for Georgia. If an already significantly more efficient Gonzaga offense also finds itself getting more second chances, the Zags should break away in this game.
March Madness Pick: Gonzaga/George Mason MLP (-115) 1-unit — if you missed GM, Oregon or Clemson ML is another leg I like
March Madness Pick: Gonzaga/UCLA MLP (+100) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
