This week’s PGA TOUR event takes us out to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, located just outside Tampa, FL. The Valspar Championship is a full-field event that has been hosted at Copperhead since the early 2000s. The venue is a tough winding Par 71 that can play extremely tough in the wind.
I wrote more about Copperhead in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet.
“With water prevalent and placement being such a big factor, there is little doubt we need players capable of a great all-around effort on the stat sheet. Great long-iron play is essential, and a credible off-the-tee game is a must. In 2023, three of the top five finishers gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach for the week and every single one of them gained strokes off the tee as well—even if it wasn’t as significant as the gains they made on approach. Last season, the top two finishers (Malnati and Cameron Young) gained 3.5 and 5.0 strokes OTT respectively.
While strokes gained off the tee and approach stats will remain critical to success, much like Bay Hill, the overseeded Poa greens at Copperhead do lend themselves to big putting spikes. Recent winners have gained more strokes putting vs the field than any other area. Last season, Malnati ranked third in SG: PUTT for the week, gaining 8.4 strokes on the greens. Each of the last four winners (Burns x2, Moore and Malnati) have now gained +4.9 strokes or more putting.”
The event this week also has a ton of wind in the forecast for the first two days, which is likely to make the scoring extra difficult. As of writing, the wind is set to get stronger as the day progresses on Thursday and then die down on Friday afternoon, which could give the starters on Thursday Morning a significant advantage.
As the Pick6 options this week are focused on the entire event of play, we’ll be focusing on finishing position totals again to build out our lineups.
Below, I’ll give you my best ideas for this week’s Valspar Championship DraftKings Pick6 lineups.
Justin Thomas Better Than 22.5 Finishing Position
Despite having an afternoon tee time on Thursday, which could see him play in the worst of the weather for the first two days, I still think it’s prudent to be bullish on Justin Thomas in this spot. The American is playing some great golf right now, despite having lapses here and there that take him out of contention every week. He tied the course record at Sawgrass on Friday last week after an opening 78 and gained 4.7 strokes putting for the week, which was his best performance on the greens since the 2023 Genesis.
Thomas has also done well at Copperhead when he’s shown up to this event, bagging top 10 finishes three times in eight starts. We’ll need Thomas to survive the first two days of chaos, but if he does, his current form suggests he shouldn’t have too much trouble making up ground over the weekend in what is a weaker field than the one he finished T33 in last week.
Having finished T10 in three of his last six starts, I like the Better Than option on the 22.5 total in this spot.
Stephan Jaeger Better Than 38.5 Finishing Position
Jaeger already has two T10 finishes on the season including a T3 at the Sony Open and a T6 in Mexico. He comes in playing some great golf and finished a tidy T20 last week and gained 5.3 strokes on approach and 4.0 strokes putting. He also played quite well at Copperhead in 2023, where he was tied for the lead after Round 1 and eventually finished T27.
The 35-year-old is a closer (6-time winner on the KF Tour) and won on a similarly tough Par 70 last season around this time in Houston. Given he’s in the AM/PM wave with an early Thursday tee time, I don’t think his finishing position should be this high as we essentially only need him to finish in the T40 to cash.
Kurt Kitayama Better Than 39.5 Finishing Position
Kitayama didn’t have the greatest week at Sawgrass but he did end strong. The former European Tour star finished with a 66, which tied for the lowest score on Sunday. Kitayama again showed great prowess off the tee, gaining 1.2 strokes OTT, and finally found some consistency with the putter gaining 1.9 strokes on the greens, his best mark of the season in that area.
He’s a former winner in Florida (Bay Hill 2023) and has an early tee time on Thursday, which should give him an advantage over the rest of the field. Given the way he’s playing now, if he can sneak past the cutline, we could see him put in another low round or two this weekend and hopefully blow this 39.5 finishing mark out of the water.
Bud Cauley Worse Than 39.5 Finishing Position
Cauley was a great story last week as the veteran grinder managed to get himself a late Sunday tee time at one of the biggest events on the PGA TOUR. However, after having spent a week in contention at one of the most stressful courses, this week is likely to see some regression from Cauley, who did most of his damage last week with the putter, gaining 6.2 strokes on the greens.
Cauley is also going out in the afternoon wave, which will give him a significant disadvantage given the current forecast. It also doesn’t help that Copperhead hasn’t been a great venue for him either. He has played at this venue four times and has never finished better than T58. Maybe this is the season he turns it around but with the tee times and weather working against him, I like playing the opposite side here and going for a finish of T40 or worse.
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